考虑一个多阶段项目管理问题，决策者需要处理两个问题：（a）如何在每个阶段内为项目分配资源，以及（b）何时进入下一阶段，以便总的预期回报尽可能大。我们制定的问题作为一个多臂强盗问题的优先关系。Chan，Fuh and Hu（2005）构造了一类渐近最优的拉臂策略，以最小化完全信息支付的不足。在这里，我们进一步探讨所提出的策略的最优性。首先，我们证明了由后悔下界给出的效率基准，降低到Lai和Robbins（1985），Hu和Wei（1989），Fuh和Hu（2000）的水平。这意味着所提出的策略也是最优的上述文件的设置。其次，当坏集为空时，我们建立了所提出的策略的超有效性。第三，我们表明，他们仍然是最佳的武器之间的切换成本不变。此外，我们还证明了在Harris回归条件下，对于马尔可夫链，Wald方程成立，这是研究所提出策略有效性的重要工具.
英文摘要：
Consider a multi-phase project management problem where the decision maker needs to deal with two issues: (a) how to allocate resources to projects within each phase, and (b) when to enter the next phase, so that the total expected reward is as large as possible. We formulate the problem as a multi-armed bandit problem with precedence relations. In Chan, Fuh and Hu (2005), a class of asymptotically optimal arm-pulling strategies is constructed to minimize the shortfall from perfect information payoff. Here we further explore optimality properties of the proposed strategies. First, we show that the efficiency benchmark, which is given by the regret lower bound, reduces to those in Lai and Robbins (1985), Hu and Wei (1989), and Fuh and Hu (2000). This implies that the proposed strategy is also optimal under the settings of aforementioned papers. Secondly, we establish the super-efficiency of proposed strategies when the bad set is empty. Thirdly, we show that they are still optimal with constant switching cost between arms. In addition, we prove that the Wald's equation holds for Markov chains under Harris recurrent condition, which is an important tool in studying the efficiency of the proposed strategies.
Lai and Robbins (1985) and Lai (1987) provided efficient parametric solutions to the multi-armed bandit problem, showing that arm allocation via upper confidence bounds (UCB) achieves minimum regret. These bounds are constructed from the Kullback-Leibler information of the reward distributions, estimated from specified parametric families. In recent years there has been renewed interest in the multi-armed bandit problem due to new applications in machine learning algorithms and data analytics. Non-parametric arm allocation procedures like $ε$-greedy, Boltzmann exploration and BESA were studied…
We obtain the upper bound of the loss function for a strategy in the multi-armed bandit problem with Gaussian distributions of incomes. Considered strategy is an asymptotic generalization of the strategy proposed by J. Bather for the multi-armed bandit problem and using UCB rule, i.e. choosing the action corresponding to the maximum of the upper bound of the confidence interval of the current estimate of the expected value of one-step income. Results are obtained with the help of invariant description of the control on the unit horizon in the domain of close distributions because just there th…
We study a multi-armed bandit problem with covariates in a setting where there is a possible delay in observing the rewards. Under some mild assumptions on the probability distributions for the delays and using an appropriate randomization to select the arms, the proposed strategy is shown to be strongly consistent.
I analyse the frequentist regret of the famous Gittins index strategy for multi-armed bandits with Gaussian noise and a finite horizon. Remarkably it turns out that this approach leads to finite-time regret guarantees comparable to those available for the popular UCB algorithm. Along the way I derive finite-time bounds on the Gittins index that are asymptotically exact and may be of independent interest. I also discuss some computational issues and present experimental results suggesting that a particular version of the Gittins index strategy is a modest improvement on existing algorithms with…
This work explores adaptations of successful multi-armed bandits policies to the online contextual bandits scenario with binary rewards using binary classification algorithms such as logistic regression as black-box oracles. Some of these adaptations are achieved through bootstrapping or approximate bootstrapping, while others rely on other forms of randomness, resulting in more scalable approaches than previous works, and the ability to work with any type of classification algorithm. In particular, the Adaptive-Greedy algorithm shows a lot of promise, in many cases achieving better performanc…
Gittins indices provide an optimal solution to the classical multi-armed bandit problem. An obstacle to their use has been the common perception that their computation is very difficult. This paper demonstrates an accessible general methodology for the calculating Gittins indices for the multi-armed bandit with a detailed study on the cases of Bernoulli and Gaussian rewards. With accompanying easy-to-use open source software, this work removes computation as a barrier to using Gittins indices in these commonly found settings.
We consider the stochastic linear (multi-armed) contextual bandit problem with the possibility of hidden simple multi-armed bandit structure in which the rewards are independent of the contextual information. Algorithms that are designed solely for one of the regimes are known to be sub-optimal for the alternate regime. We design a single computationally efficient algorithm that simultaneously obtains problem-dependent optimal regret rates in the simple multi-armed bandit regime and minimax optimal regret rates in the linear contextual bandit regime, without knowing a priori which of the two m…
In this paper, we study the multi-armed bandit problem in the batched setting where the employed policy must split data into a small number of batches. While the minimax regret for the two-armed stochastic bandits has been completely characterized in \cite{perchet2016batched}, the effect of the number of arms on the regret for the multi-armed case is still open. Moreover, the question whether adaptively chosen batch sizes will help to reduce the regret also remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose the BaSE (batched successive elimination) policy to achieve the rate-optimal regrets (wit…
IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center（IBM托马斯·J·沃森研究中心）
In recent years, multi-armed bandit (MAB) framework has attracted a lot of attention in various applications, from recommender systems and information retrieval to healthcare and finance, due to its stellar performance combined with certain attractive properties, such as learning from less feedback. The multi-armed bandit field is currently flourishing, as novel problem settings and algorithms motivated by various practical applications are being introduced, building on top of the classical bandit problem. This article aims to provide a comprehensive review of top recent developments in multip…
We consider applying multi-armed bandits to model-assisted designs for dose-finding clinical trials. Multi-armed bandits are very simple and powerful methods to determine actions to maximize a reward in a limited number of trials. Among the multi-armed bandits, we first consider the use of Thompson sampling which determines actions based on random samples from a posterior distribution. In the small sample size, as shown in dose-finding trials, because the tails of posterior distribution are heavier and random samples are too much variability, we also consider an application of regularized Thom…
Multi-armed bandits are a quintessential machine learning problem requiring the balancing of exploration and exploitation. While there has been progress in developing algorithms with strong theoretical guarantees, there has been less focus on practical near-optimal finite-time performance. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for Bayesian multi-armed bandits that utilizes value-function-driven online planning techniques. Building on previous work on UCB and Gittins index, we introduce linearly-separable value functions that take both the expected return and the benefit of exploration into co…
Contextual multi-armed bandits are classical models in reinforcement learning for sequential decision-making associated with individual information. A widely-used policy for bandits is Thompson Sampling, where samples from a data-driven probabilistic belief about unknown parameters are used to select the control actions. For this computationally fast algorithm, performance analyses are available under full context-observations. However, little is known for problems that contexts are not fully observed. We propose a Thompson Sampling algorithm for partially observable contextual multi-armed ban…
The multi-armed bandit problem is a classical decision-making problem where an agent has to learn an optimal action balancing exploration and exploitation. Properly managing this trade-off requires a correct assessment of uncertainty; in multi-armed bandits, as in other machine learning applications, it is important to distinguish between stochasticity that is inherent to the system (aleatoric uncertainty) and stochasticity that derives from the limited knowledge of the agent (epistemic uncertainty). In this paper we consider the formalism of subjective logic, a concise and expressive framewor…
We consider a novel multi-armed bandit framework where the rewards obtained by pulling the arms are functions of a common latent random variable. The correlation between arms due to the common random source can be used to design a generalized upper-confidence-bound (UCB) algorithm that identifies certain arms as $non-competitive$, and avoids exploring them. As a result, we reduce a $K$-armed bandit problem to a $C+1$-armed problem, where $C+1$ includes the best arm and $C$ $competitive$ arms. Our regret analysis shows that the competitive arms need to be pulled $\mathcal{O}(\log T)$ times, whi…
Centre Borelli, ENS Paris-Saclay（巴黎萨克雷高等师范学院博雷利中心）；Cdiscount（Cdiscount公司）；CREST, ENSAE Paris（巴黎经济与统计高等学校统计与经济研究中心）；Criteo AI Lab（Criteo人工智能实验室）
Continuously learning and leveraging the knowledge accumulated from prior tasks in order to improve future performance is a long standing machine learning problem. In this paper, we study the problem in the multi-armed bandit framework with the objective to minimize the total regret incurred over a series of tasks. While most bandit algorithms are designed to have a low worst-case regret, we examine here the average regret over bandit instances drawn from some prior distribution which may change over time. We specifically focus on confidence interval tuning of UCB algorithms. We propose a band…
Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto（多伦多大学罗特曼管理学院）
In many online learning or multi-armed bandit problems, the taken actions or pulled arms are ordinal and required to be monotone over time. Examples include dynamic pricing, in which the firms use markup pricing policies to please early adopters and deter strategic waiting, and clinical trials, in which the dose allocation usually follows the dose escalation principle to prevent dose limiting toxicities. We consider the continuum-armed bandit problem when the arm sequence is required to be monotone. We show that when the unknown objective function is Lipschitz continuous, the regret is $O(T)$.…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）
We consider two agents playing simultaneously the same stochastic three-armed bandit problem. The two agents are cooperating but they cannot communicate. We propose a strategy with no collisions at all between the players (with very high probability), and with near-optimal regret $O(\sqrt{T \log(T)})$. We also argue that the extra logarithmic term $\sqrt{\log(T)}$ should be necessary by proving a lower bound for a full information variant of the problem.
Contextual multi-armed bandit problems arise frequently in important industrial applications. Existing solutions model the context either linearly, which enables uncertainty driven (principled) exploration, or non-linearly, by using epsilon-greedy exploration policies. Here we present a deep learning framework for contextual multi-armed bandits that is both non-linear and enables principled exploration at the same time. We tackle the exploration vs. exploitation trade-off through Thompson sampling by exploiting the connection between inference time dropout and sampling from the posterior over …
Bridging Adversarial and Nonstationary Multi-armed Bandit
Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto（多伦多大学罗特曼管理学院）；The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；School of Data Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳）数据科学学院）
Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence（博世人工智能中心）；University of Southern Denmark（南丹麦大学）；Technische Universität Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）
We present a PAC-Bayesian analysis of lifelong learning. In the lifelong learning problem, a sequence of learning tasks is observed one-at-a-time, and the goal is to transfer information acquired from previous tasks to new learning tasks. We consider the case when each learning task is a multi-armed bandit problem. We derive lower bounds on the expected average reward that would be obtained if a given multi-armed bandit algorithm was run in a new task with a particular prior and for a set number of steps. We propose lifelong learning algorithms that use our new bounds as learning objectives. O…
This work explores the idea of a causal contextual multi-armed bandit approach to automated marketing, where we estimate and optimize the causal (incremental) effects. Focusing on causal effect leads to better return on investment (ROI) by targeting only the persuadable customers who wouldn't have taken the action organically. Our approach draws on strengths of causal inference, uplift modeling, and multi-armed bandits. It optimizes on causal treatment effects rather than pure outcome, and incorporates counterfactual generation within data collection. Following uplift modeling results, we opti…
Based on differential privacy (DP) framework, we introduce and unify privacy definitions for the multi-armed bandit algorithms. We represent the framework with a unified graphical model and use it to connect privacy definitions. We derive and contrast lower bounds on the regret of bandit algorithms satisfying these definitions. We leverage a unified proving technique to achieve all the lower bounds. We show that for all of them, the learner's regret is increased by a multiplicative factor dependent on the privacy level $ε$. We observe that the dependency is weaker when we do not require local …
This paper studies a multi-armed bandit problem where the decision-maker is loss averse, in particular she is risk averse in the domain of gains and risk loving in the domain of losses. The focus is on large horizons. Consequences of loss aversion for asymptotic (large horizon) properties are derived in a number of analytical results. The analysis is based on a new central limit theorem for a set of measures under which conditional variances can vary in a largely unstructured history-dependent way subject only to the restriction that they lie in a fixed interval.
For the stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem from a constrained model that generalizes the classical one, we show that an asymptotic optimality is achievable by a simple strategy extended from the $ε_t$-greedy strategy. We provide a finite-time lower bound on the probability of correct selection of an optimal near-feasible arm that holds for all time steps. Under some conditions, the bound approaches one as time $t$ goes to infinity. A particular example sequence of $\{ε_t\}$ having the asymptotic convergence rate in the order of $(1-\frac{1}{t})^4$ that holds from a sufficiently large …
We present a formal model of human decision-making in explore-exploit tasks using the context of multi-armed bandit problems, where the decision-maker must choose among multiple options with uncertain rewards. We address the standard multi-armed bandit problem, the multi-armed bandit problem with transition costs, and the multi-armed bandit problem on graphs. We focus on the case of Gaussian rewards in a setting where the decision-maker uses Bayesian inference to estimate the reward values. We model the decision-maker's prior knowledge with the Bayesian prior on the mean reward. We develop the…
We extend the classic multi-armed bandit (MAB) model to the setting of noncompliance, where the arm pull is a mere instrument and the treatment applied may differ from it, which gives rise to the instrument-armed bandit (IAB) problem. The IAB setting is relevant whenever the experimental units are human since free will, ethics, and the law may prohibit unrestricted or forced application of treatment. In particular, the setting is relevant in bandit models of dynamic clinical trials and other controlled trials on human interventions. Nonetheless, the setting has not been fully investigate in th…
Sequential Transfer in Multi-armed Bandit with Finite Set of Models
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；INRIA Lille - Nord Europe（法国国家信息与自动化研究所里尔-北欧分部）
从先前的任务中学习，并将这些经验转移到提高未来的表现上，对于构建终身学习代理至关重要。虽然监督学习和强化学习的结果表明迁移可以显着提高学习性能，但大多数关于迁移的文献都集中在批量学习任务上。在本文中，我们研究的问题\textit{sequential transfer in online learning}，特别是在多臂强盗框架，其目标是尽量减少累积遗憾的一系列任务，通过逐步转移知识，从以前的任务。我们介绍了一种新的强盗算法的基础上的矩量法的方法估计的可能的任务，并获得遗憾的界限。
We consider a multi-armed bandit framework where the rewards obtained by pulling different arms are correlated. We develop a unified approach to leverage these reward correlations and present fundamental generalizations of classic bandit algorithms to the correlated setting. We present a unified proof technique to analyze the proposed algorithms. Rigorous analysis of C-UCB (the correlated bandit version of Upper-confidence-bound) reveals that the algorithm ends up pulling certain sub-optimal arms, termed as non-competitive, only O(1) times, as opposed to the O(log T) pulls required by classic …
The Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）；Iowa State University（爱荷华州立大学）
This paper investigates the problem of regret minimization for multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems with local differential privacy (LDP) guarantee. In stochastic bandit systems, the rewards may refer to the users' activities, which may involve private information and the users may not want the agent to know. However, in many cases, the agent needs to know these activities to provide better services such as recommendations and news feeds. To handle this dilemma, we adopt differential privacy and study the regret upper and lower bounds for MAB algorithms with a given LDP guarantee. In this paper, …
LINE Plus Corporation（LINE Plus公司）；Pohang University of Science and Technology（浦项科技大学）
We consider a multi-armed bandit problem in which a set of arms is registered by each agent, and the agent receives reward when its arm is selected. An agent might strategically submit more arms with replications, which can bring more reward by abusing the bandit algorithm's exploration-exploitation balance. Our analysis reveals that a standard algorithm indeed fails at preventing replication and suffers from linear regret in time $T$. We aim to design a bandit algorithm which demotivates replications and also achieves a small cumulative regret. We devise Hierarchical UCB (H-UCB) of replicatio…
University of Colorado, Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）；Clemson University（克莱姆森大学）
We study incentivized exploration for the multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem where the players receive compensation for exploring arms other than the greedy choice and may provide biased feedback on reward. We seek to understand the impact of this drifted reward feedback by analyzing the performance of three instantiations of the incentivized MAB algorithm: UCB, $\varepsilon$-Greedy, and Thompson Sampling. Our results show that they all achieve $\mathcal{O}(\log T)$ regret and compensation under the drifted reward, and are therefore effective in incentivizing exploration. Numerical examples are …
The multi-armed bandit problem has been extensively studied under the stationary assumption. However in reality, this assumption often does not hold because the distributions of rewards themselves may change over time. In this paper, we propose a change-detection (CD) based framework for multi-armed bandit problems under the piecewise-stationary setting, and study a class of change-detection based UCB (Upper Confidence Bound) policies, CD-UCB, that actively detects change points and restarts the UCB indices. We then develop CUSUM-UCB and PHT-UCB, that belong to the CD-UCB class and use cumulat…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
We study the problem of information sharing and cooperation in Multi-Player Multi-Armed bandits. We propose the first algorithm that achieves logarithmic regret for this problem when the collision reward is unknown. Our results are based on two innovations. First, we show that a simple modification to a successive elimination strategy can be used to allow the players to estimate their suboptimality gaps, up to constant factors, in the absence of collisions. Second, we leverage the first result to design a communication protocol that successfully uses the small reward of collisions to coordinat…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
We present a new type of acquisition functions for online decision making in multi-armed and contextual bandit problems with extreme payoffs. Specifically, we model the payoff function as a Gaussian process and formulate a novel type of upper confidence bound (UCB) acquisition function that guides exploration towards the bandits that are deemed most relevant according to the variability of the observed rewards. This is achieved by computing a tractable likelihood ratio that quantifies the importance of the output relative to the inputs and essentially acts as an \textit{attention mechanism} th…
We analyze the regret of combinatorial Thompson sampling (CTS) for the combinatorial multi-armed bandit with probabilistically triggered arms under the semi-bandit feedback setting. We assume that the learner has access to an exact optimization oracle but does not know the expected base arm outcomes beforehand. When the expected reward function is Lipschitz continuous in the expected base arm outcomes, we derive $O(\sum_{i =1}^m \log T / (p_i Δ_i))$ regret bound for CTS, where $m$ denotes the number of base arms, $p_i$ denotes the minimum non-zero triggering probability of base arm $i$ and $Δ_…
School of Information Science and Technology University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学信息科学技术学院）
We consider a variant of the classic multi-armed bandit problem where the expected reward of each arm is a function of an unknown parameter. The arms are divided into different groups, each of which has a common parameter. Therefore, when the player selects an arm at each time slot, information of other arms in the same group is also revealed. This regional bandit model naturally bridges the non-informative bandit setting where the player can only learn the chosen arm, and the global bandit model where sampling one arms reveals information of all arms. We propose an efficient algorithm, UCB-g,…
For the model of constrained multi-armed bandit, we show that by construction there exists an index-based deterministic asymptotically optimal algorithm. The optimality is achieved by the convergence of the probability of choosing an optimal feasible arm to one over infinite horizon. The algorithm is built upon Locatelli et al.'s "anytime parameter-free thresholding" algorithm under the assumption that the optimal value is known. We provide a finite-time bound to the probability of the asymptotic optimality given as 1-O(|A|Te^{-T}) where T is the horizon size and A is the set of the arms in th…
Over the past decade, contextual bandit algorithms have been gaining in popularity due to their effectiveness and flexibility in solving sequential decision problems---from online advertising and finance to clinical trial design and personalized medicine. At the same time, there are, as of yet, surprisingly few options that enable researchers and practitioners to simulate and compare the wealth of new and existing bandit algorithms in a standardized way. To help close this gap between analytical research and empirical evaluation the current paper introduces the object-oriented R package "conte…
Recent work on follow the perturbed leader (FTPL) algorithms for the adversarial multi-armed bandit problem has highlighted the role of the hazard rate of the distribution generating the perturbations. Assuming that the hazard rate is bounded, it is possible to provide regret analyses for a variety of FTPL algorithms for the multi-armed bandit problem. This paper pushes the inquiry into regret bounds for FTPL algorithms beyond the bounded hazard rate condition. There are good reasons to do so: natural distributions such as the uniform and Gaussian violate the condition. We give regret bounds f…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
Drawing a sample from a discrete distribution is one of the building components for Monte Carlo methods. Like other sampling algorithms, discrete sampling suffers from the high computational burden in large-scale inference problems. We study the problem of sampling a discrete random variable with a high degree of dependency that is typical in large-scale Bayesian inference and graphical models, and propose an efficient approximate solution with a subsampling approach. We make a novel connection between the discrete sampling and Multi-Armed Bandits problems with a finite reward population and p…
