Let Z be a strictly a-stable real Levy process (a>1) and X be a fluctuating b-homogeneous additive functional of Z. We investigate the asymptotics of the first passage-time of X above 1, and give a general upper bound. When Z has no negative jumps, we prove that this bound is optimal and does not depend on the homogeneity parameter b. This extends a result of Y. Isozaki and solves partially a conjecture of Z. Shi.
We consider a two dimensional reflecting random walk on the nonnegative integer quadrant. This random walk is assumed to be skip free in the direction to the boundary of the quadrant, but may have unbounded jumps in the opposite direction, which are referred to as upward jumps. We are interested in the tail asymptotic behavior of its stationary distribution, provided it exists. Assuming the upward jump size distributions have light tails, we completely find the rough tail asymptotics of the marginal stationary distributions in all directions. This generalizes the corresponding results for the …
We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to -infinity and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we exhibit natural conditions under which the asymptotics of the tail distribution of the overall maximum of S can be computed. We present results in discrete and in continuous time. In particular, in the absence of modulation, the process S in continuous time reduces to a Levy process with heavy-tailed Levy measure. A central point of the paper is that we make ful…
In this paper, we present several heavy-tailed distributions belonging to the new class J of distributions obeying the principle of a single big jump introduced by Beck et al. [1]. We describe the structure of this class from different angles. First, we show that heavy-tailed distributions in the class J are automatically strongly heavy-tailed and thus have tails which are not too irregular. Second, we show that such distributions are not necessarily weakly tail equivalent to a subexponential distribution. We also show that the class of heavy-tailed distributions in J which are neither long-ta…
This paper considers a general stochastic SIR epidemic model driven by a multidimensional Levy jump process with heavy tailed increments and possible correlation between noise components. In this framework, we derive new sufficient conditions for disease extinction and persistence in the mean. Our method differs from previous approaches by the use of Kunita's inequality instead of the Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for continuous processes, and allows for the treatment of infinite Levy measures by the definition of new threshold values. An SIR model driven by a tempered stable process is pr…
A {\it scenery} is a coloring $ξ$ of the integers. Let $\{S_t\}_{t\geq 0}$ be a recurrent random walk on the integers. Observing the scenery $ξ$ along the path of this random walk, one sees the color $χ_t:=ξ(S_t)$ at time $t$. The {\it scenery reconstruction problem} is concerned with recovering the scenery $ξ$, given only the sequence of observations $χ:=(χ_t)_{t\geq 0}$. The scenery reconstruction methods presented to date require the random walk to have bounded increments. Here, we present a new approach for random walks with unbounded increments which works when the tail of the increment d…
Consider a Markov chain with finite state space and suppose you wish to change time replacing the integer step index $n$ with a random counting process $N(t)$. What happens to the mixing time of the Markov chain? We present a partial reply in a particular case of interest in which $N(t)$ is a counting renewal process with power-law distributed inter-arrival times of index $β$. We then focus on $β\in (0,1)$, leading to infinite expectation for inter-arrival times and further study the situation in which inter-arrival times follow the Mittag-Leffler distribution of order $β$.
We consider a Markov chain on $R^+$ with asymptotically zero drift and finite second moments of jumps which is positive recurrent. A power-like asymptotic behaviour of the invariant tail distribution is proven; such a heavy-tailed invariant measure happens even if the jumps of the chain are bounded. Our analysis is based on test functions technique and on construction of a harmonic function.
Sub-Gaussian estimates for the natural random walk is typical of many regular fractal graphs. Subordination shows that there exist heavy tailed jump processes whose jump indices are greater than or equal to two. However, the existing machinery used to prove heat kernel bounds for such heavy tailed random walks fail in this case. In this work we extend Davies' perturbation method to obtain transition probability bounds for these anomalous heavy tailed random walks. We prove global upper and lower bounds on the transition probability density that are sharp up to constants. An important feature o…
In this paper, the large deviations on trajectory level for ergodic Markov processes are studied. These processes take values in the non-negative quadrant of the two dimension lattice and are concentrated on step-wise functions. The rates of jumps towards the axes (jump down) depend on the position of the process -- the higher the position, the greater the rate. The rates of jumps going in the same direction as the axes (jump up) are constants. Therefore the processes are ergodic. The large deviations are studied under equal scalings of both space and time. The scaled versions of the processes…
We consider a real-valued diffusion process with a linear jump term driven by a Poisson point process and we assume that the jump amplitudes have a centered density with finite moments. We show upper and lower estimates for the density of the solution in the case that the jump amplitudes follow a Gaussian or Laplacian law. The proof of the lower bound uses a general expression for the density of the solution in terms of the convolution of the density of the continuous part and the jump amplitude density. The upper bound uses an upper tail estimate in terms of the jump amplitude distribution an…
We consider in this paper a risk reserve process where the claims and gains arrive according to two independent Poisson processes. While the gain sizes are phase-type distributed, we assume instead that the claim sizes are phase-type perturbed by a heavy-tailed component; that is, the claim size distribution is formally chosen to be phase-type with large probability $1-ε$ and heavy-tailed with small probability $ε$. We analyze the seminal Gerber-Shiu function coding the joint distribution of the time to ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin, and the deficit at ruin. We derive its value as …
This article presents a new and easily implementable method to quantify the so-called coupling distance between the law of a time series and the law of a differential equation driven by Markovian additive jump noise with heavy-tailed jumps, such as $α$-stable Lévy flights. Coupling distances measure the proximity of the empirical law of the tails of the jump increments and a given power law distribution. In particular they yield an upper bound for the distance of the respective laws on path space. We prove rates of convergence comparable to the rates of the central limit theorem which are conf…
We consider a two-node fluid network with batch arrivals of random size having a heavy-tailed distribution. We are interested in the tail asymptotics for the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional queue-length process. The tail asymptotics have been well studied for two-dimensional reflecting processes where jumps have either a bounded or an unbounded light-tailed distribution. However, presence of heavy tails totally changes the asymptotics. Here we focus on the case of strong stability where both nodes release fluid with sufficiently high speeds to minimise their mutual influence. We s…
The $N$-particle branching random walk is a discrete time branching particle system with selection. We have $N$ particles located on the real line at all times. At every time step each particle is replaced by two offspring, and each offspring particle makes a jump of non-negative size from its parent's location, independently from the other jumps, according to a given jump distribution. Then only the $N$ rightmost particles survive; the other particles are removed from the system to keep the population size constant. Inspired by work of J. Bérard and P. Maillard, we examine the long term behav…
This paper addresses heavy-tailed large deviation estimates for the distribution tail of functionals of a class of spectrally one-sided Lévy process. Our contribution is to show that these estimates remain valid in a near-critical regime. This complements recent similar results that have been obtained for the all-time supremum of such processes. Specifically, we consider local asymptotics of the all-time supremum, the supremum of the process until exiting $[0,\infty)$, the maximum jump until that time, and the time it takes until exiting $[0,\infty)$. The proofs rely, among other things, on pr…
We study the positive recurrence of multi-dimensional birth-and-death processes describing the evolution of a large class of stochastic systems, a typical example being the randomly varying number of flow-level transfers in a telecommunication wire-line or wireless network. We first provide a generic method to construct a Lyapunov function when the drift can be extended to a smooth function on $\mathbb R^N$, using an associated deterministic dynamical system. This approach gives an elementary proof of ergodicity without needing to establish the convergence of the scaled version of the process …
In this paper we address the problem of rare-event simulation for heavy-tailed Lévy processes with infinite activities. We propose a strongly efficient importance sampling algorithm that builds upon the sample path large deviations for heavy-tailed Lévy processes, stick-breaking approximation of extrema of Lévy processes, and the randomized debiasing Monte Carlo scheme. The proposed importance sampling algorithm can be applied to a broad class of Lévy processes and exhibits significant improvements in efficiency when compared to crude Monte-Carlo method in our numerical experiments.
In this note, we study the ultimate ruin probabilities of a real-valued L{é}vy process X with light-tailed negative jumps. It is well-known that, for such L{é}vy processes, the probability of ruin decreases as an exponential function with a rate given by the root of the Laplace exponent, when the initial value goes to infinity. Under the additional assumption that X has integrable positive jumps, we show how a finer analysis of the Laplace exponent gives in fact a complete description of the bounds on the probability of ruin for this class of L{é}vy processes. This leads to the identification …
Given a probability measure on a finitely generated group, its Martin boundary is a natural way to compactify the group using the Green function of the corresponding random walk. For finitely supported measures in hyperbolic groups, it is known since the work of Ancona and Gou{ë}zel-Lalley that the Martin boundary coincides with the geometric boundary. The goal of this paper is to weaken the finite support assumption. We first show that, in any non-amenable group, there exist probability measures with exponential tails giving rise to pathological Martin boundaries. Then, for probability measur…
We investigate the properties of a discrete-time martingale $\{X_m\}_{m\in \mathbb Z_{\geq 0}}$, where all differences between adjacent random variables are limited to be not more than a constant as a promise. In this situation, it is known that the Azuma-Hoeffding inequality holds, which gives an upper bound of a probability for exceptional events. The inequality gives a simple form of the upper bound, and it has been utilized for many investigations. However, the inequality is not tight. We give an explicit expression of a tight upper bound, and we show that it and the bound obtained from th…
Consider on a manifold the solution $X$ of a stochastic differential equation driven by a Lévy process without Brownian part. Sufficient conditions for the smoothness of the law of $X_t$ are given, with particular emphasis on noncompact manifolds. The result is deduced from the case of affine spaces by means of a localisation technique. The particular cases of Lie groups and homogeneous spaces are discussed.
We propose a class of strongly efficient rare event simulation estimators for random walks and compound Poisson processes with a regularly varying increment/jump-size distribution in a general large deviations regime. Our estimator is based on an importance sampling strategy that hinges on the heavy-tailed sample path large deviations result recently established in Rhee, Blanchet, and Zwart (2016). The new estimators are straightforward to implement and can be used to systematically evaluate the probability of a wide range of rare events with bounded relative error. They are "universal" in the…
We suggest three superpositions of COGARCH (supCOGARCH) volatility processes driven by Lévy processes or Lévy bases. We investigate second-order properties, jump behaviour, and prove that they exhibit Pareto-like tails. Corresponding price processes are defined and studied. We find that the supCOGARCH models allow for more flexible autocovariance structures than the COGARCH. Moreover, other than most financial volatility models, the supCOGARCH processes do not exhibit a deterministic relationship between price and volatility jumps. Furthermore, in one supCOGARCH model not all volatility jumps …
In this paper we introduce non-decreasing jump processes with independent and time non-homogeneous increments. Although they are not Lévy processes, they somehow generalize subordinators in the sense that their Laplace exponents are possibly different Bernštein functions for each time $t$. By means of these processes, a generalization of subordinate semigroups in the sense of Bochner is proposed. Because of time-inhomogeneity, two-parameter semigroups (propagators) arise and we provide a Phillips formula which leads to time dependent generators. The inverse processes are also investigated and …
We study asymptotic properties of spatially non-homogeneous random walks with non-integrable increments, including transience, almost-sure bounds, and existence and non-existence of moments for first-passage and last-exit times. In our proofs we also make use of estimates for hitting probabilities and large deviations bounds. Our results are more general than existing results in the literature, which consider only the case of sums of independent (typically, identically distributed) random variables. We do not assume the Markov property. Existing results that we generalize include a circle of i…
We consider a Markov process $X$, which is the solution of a stochastic differential equation driven by a Lévy process $Z$ and an independent Wiener process $W$. Under some regularity conditions, including non-degeneracy of the diffusive and jump components of the process as well as smoothness of the Lévy density of $Z$ outside any neighborhood of the origin, we obtain a small-time second-order polynomial expansion for the tail distribution and the transition density of the process $X$. Our method of proof combines a recent regularizing technique for deriving the analog small-time expansions f…
We study subexponential tail asymptotics for the distribution of the maximum $M_t:=\sup_{u\in[0,t]}X_u$ of a process $X_t$ with negative drift for the entire range of $t>0$. We consider compound renewal processes with linear drift and Lévy processes. For both we also formulate and prove the principle of a single big jump for their maxima. The class of compound renewal processes particularly includes Cramér-Lundberg risk process.
We consider a dynamical system described by the differential equation $\dot{Y}_t=-U'(Y_t)$ with a unique stable point at the origin. We perturb the system by the Lévy noise of intensity $\varepsilon$ to obtain the stochastic differential equation $dX^{\varepsilon}_t=-U'(X^{\varepsilon}_{t-}) dt+\varepsilon dL_t.$ The process $L$ is a symmetric Lévy process whose jump measure $ν$ has exponentially light tails, $ν([u,\infty))\sim\exp(-u^α)$, $α>0$, $u\to \infty$. We study the first exit problem for the trajectories of the solutions of the stochastic differential equation from the interval $(-1,1…
We extend Rice Formula to a process which is the sum of two independent processes: a smooth process and a pure jump process with finitely many jumps. Formulas for the mean number of both continuous and discontinuous crossings through a fixed level on a compact time interval are obtained. We present examples in which we compute explicitly the mean number of crossings and compare which kind of crossings dominate for high levels. In one of the examples the leading term of the tail of the distribution function of the maximum of the process over a compact time interval as the level goes to infinity…
We consider the interacting particle system on the homogeneous tree of degree $(d + 1)$, known as frog model. In this model, active particles perform independent random walks, awakening all sleeping particles they encounter, and dying after a random number of jumps, with geometric distribution. We prove an upper bound for the critical parameter of survival of the model, which improves the previously known results. This upper bound was conjectured in a paper by Lebensztayn et al. ($ J. Stat. Phys.$, 119(1-2), 331-345, 2005). We also give a closed formula for the upper bound.
We study the Wiener-Hopf factorization for Lévy processes $X_t$ with completely monotone jumps. Extending previous results of L.C.G. Rogers, we prove that the space-time Wiener-Hopf factors are complete Bernstein functions of both the spatial and the temporal variable. As a corollary, we prove complete monotonicity of: (a) the tail of the distribution function of the supremum of $X_t$ up to an independent exponential time; (b) the Laplace transform of the supremum of $X_t$ up to a fixed time $T$, as a function of $T$. The proof involves a detailed analysis of the holomorphic extension of the c…
We treat the class of universal Markov processes on the d-dimensional Euklidean space which do not depend on random. For these, as well as for several subclasses, we prove criteria whether a function f, defined on the positive half-line, can be a path of a process in the respective class. This is useful in particular in the construction of (counter-)examples. Furthermore we characterize the processes of this kind, which are homogeneous in space and time. The semimartingale property is characterized in terms of the jumps of a one-dimensional deterministic Markov process. We emphasize the differ…
We consider random walks with finite second moment which drifts to $-\infty$ and have heavy tail. We focus on the events when the minimum and the final value of this walk belong to some compact set. We first specify the associated probability. Then, conditionally on such an event, we finely describe the trajectory of the random walk. It yields a decomposition theorem with respect to a random time giving a big jump whose distribution can be described explicitly.
We consider homogeneous STIT tessellations Y in the \ell-dimensional Euclidean space and show the triviality of the tail σ-algebra. This is a sharpening of the mixing result by Lachièze-Rey.
In this article we investigate the existence and uniqueness of the stochastic Volterra equation driven by a \levy noise of pure jump type. In particular, we consider the following type of equation $ du(t) = ( A\int_0 ^t b(t-s) u(s)\,ds) \, dt + F(t,u(t))\,dt+ \int_ZG(t,u(t), z) \tilde η(dz,dt) + \int_{Z_L}G_L(t,u(t), z) η_L(dz,dt) ;\, t\in (0,T], $, $u(0)=u_0$, where $Z$ and $Z_L$ are Banach spaces, $\tilde η$ is a time-homogeneous compensated Poisson random measure on $Z$ with \levy measure $ν$ capturing the small jumps, and $η_L$ is a time-homogeneous Poisson random measure on $Z_L$ with fin…
This paper considers a Lévy-driven queue (i.e., a Lévy process reflected at 0), and focuses on the distribution of $M(t)$, that is, the minimal value attained in an interval of length $t$ (where it is assumed that the queue is in stationarity at the beginning of the interval). The first contribution is an explicit characterization of this distribution, in terms of Laplace transforms, for spectrally one-sided Lévy processes (i.e., either only positive jumps or only negative jumps). The second contribution concerns the asymptotics of $\prob{M(T_u)> u}$ (for different classes of functions $T_u$ a…
Some sufficient conditions on the algebraic stability of non-homogeneous regime-switching diffusion processes are established. In this work we focus on determining the decay rate of a stochastic system which switches randomly between different states, and owns different decay rates at various states. In particular, we show that if a finite-state regime-switching diffusion process is $p$-th moment exponentially stable in some states and is $p$-th moment algebraically stable in other states, which are characterized by a common Lyapunov function, then this process is ultimately exponentially stab…
Several two-boundary problems are solved for a special Lévy process: the Poisson process with an exponential component. The jumps of this process are controlled by a homogeneous Poisson process, the positive jump size distribution is arbitrary, while the distribution of the negative jumps is exponential. Closed form expressions are obtained for the integral transforms of the joint distribution of the first exit time from an interval and the value of the overshoot through boundaries at the first exit time. Also the joint distribution of the first entry time into the interval and the value of th…
In this paper we study Green measures of certain classes of Markov processes. In particular Brownian motion and processes with jump generators with different tails. The Green measures are represented as a sum of a singular and a regular part given in terms of the jump generator. The main technical question is to find a bound for the regular part.
In this article, we consider a Markov process X, starting from x and solving a stochastic differential equation, which is driven by a Brownian motion and an independent pure jump component exhibiting state-dependent jump intensity and infinite jump activity. A second order expansion is derived for the tail probability P[X(t)>x+y] in small time t, for y>0. As an application of this expansion and a suitable change of the underlying probability measure, a second order expansion, near expiration, for out-of-the-money European call option prices is obtained when the underlying stock price is modele…
Motivated by a risk process with positive and negative premium rates, we consider a real-valued Markov additive process with finitely many background states. This additive process linearly increases or decreases while the background state is unchanged, and may have upward jumps at the transition instants of the background state. It is known that the hitting probabilities of this additive process at lower levels have a matrix exponential form. We here study the hitting probabilities at upper levels, which do not have a matrix exponential form in general. These probabilities give the ruin probab…
In this paper we first provide several conditional limit theorems for Lévy processes with negative drift and regularly varying tail. Then we apply them to study the asymptotic behavior of expectations of some exponential functionals of heavy-tailed Lévy processes. As the key point, we observe that the asymptotics mainly depends on the sample paths with early arrival large jump. Both the polynomial decay rate and the exact expression of the limit coefficients are given. As an application, we give an exact description for the extinction speed of continuous-state branching processes in heavy-tail…
We define the probability structure of a continuous-time time-homogeneous Markov jump process, on a finite graph, that represents the continuous-time counterpart of the so-called Ruelle-Bowen discrete-time random walk. It constitutes the unique jump process having maximal entropy rate. Moreover, it has the property that, given the number of jumps between any two specified end-points on the graph, the probability of traversing any one of the alternative paths that are consistent with the specified number of jumps and end-points, is the same for all, and thereby depends only on the number of jum…
We consider a stochastic volatility model with Lévy jumps for a log-return process $Z=(Z_{t})_{t\geq 0}$ of the form $Z=U+X$, where $U=(U_{t})_{t\geq 0}$ is a classical stochastic volatility process and $X=(X_{t})_{t\geq 0}$ is an independent Lévy process with absolutely continuous Lévy measure $ν$. Small-time expansions, of arbitrary polynomial order, in time-$t$, are obtained for the tails $\bbp(Z_{t}\geq z)$, $z>0$, and for the call-option prices $\bbe(e^{z+Z_{t}}-1)_{+}$, $z\neq 0$, assuming smoothness conditions on the {\PaleGrey density of $ν$} away from the origin and a small-time large…
