Randal Douc
In this paper, we consider a parametric hidden Markov model where the hidden state space is non necessarily finite. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the invertibility of the limiting Fisher information matrix.
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On the singularity of the Fisher Information matrix in the sine-skewed family on the d-dimensional torus
本文研究了d维环面上正弦偏斜模型中信息矩阵奇异性的成因及特征。
Hallin and Ley [Bernoulli 18 (2012) 747-763] investigate and fully characterize the Fisher singularity phenomenon in univariate and multivariate families of skew-symmetric distributions. This paper proposes a refined analysis of the (univariate) problem, showing that singularity can be more or less severe, inducing $n^{1/4}$ ("simple singularity"), $n^{1/6}$ ("double singularity"), or $n^{1/8}$ ("triple singularity") consistency rates for the skewness parameter. We show, however, that simple singularity (yielding $n^{1/4}$ consistency rates), if any singularity at all, is the rule, in the sens…
In this paper we derive some properties of the Bezout matrix and relate the Fisher information matrix for a stationary ARMA process to the Bezoutian. Some properties are explained via realizations in state space form of the derivatives of the white noise process with respect to the parameters. A factorization of the Fisher information matrix as a product in factors which involve the Bezout matrix of the associated AR and MA polynomials is derived. From this factorization we can characterize singularity of the Fisher information matrix.
To characterize the Kullback-Leibler divergence and Fisher information in general parametrized hidden Markov models, in this paper, we first show that the log likelihood and its derivatives can be represented as an additive functional of a Markovian iterated function system, and then provide explicit characterizations of these two quantities through this representation. Moreover, we show that Kullback-Leibler divergence can be locally approximated by a quadratic function determined by the Fisher information. Results relating to the Cramér-Rao lower bound and the Hájek-Le Cam local asymptotic m…
Asymptotics and finite sample bounds for prediction and smoothing in Wright-Fisher hidden Markov models
本研究针对Wright-Fisher隐马尔可夫模型，证明预测与平滑分布在重复抽样下收敛于群体转移律和桥律，并给出有限样本界及渐近分布，适用于古DNA等时间序列数据。
Skew-symmetric densities recently received much attention in the literature, giving rise to increasingly general families of univariate and multivariate skewed densities. Most of those families, however, suffer from the inferential drawback of a potentially singular Fisher information in the vicinity of symmetry. All existing results indicate that Gaussian densities (possibly after restriction to some linear subspace) play a special and somewhat intriguing role in that context. We dispel that widespread opinion by providing a full characterization, in a general multivariate context, of the inf…
The partially observed linear Gaussian system of stochastic differential equations with low noise in observations is considered. A kernel-type estimators are used for estimation of the quadratic variation of the derivative of the limit of the observed process. Then this estimator is used for nonparametric estimation of the integral of the square of volatility of unobservable component. This estimator is also used for construction of substitution estimators in the case where the drift in observable component and the volatility of the state component depend on some unknown parameter. Then this s…
We consider regression models involving multilayer perceptrons (MLP) with one hidden layer and a Gaussian noise. The estimation of the parameters of the MLP can be done by maximizing the likelihood of the model. In this framework, it is difficult to determine the true number of hidden units because the information matrix of Fisher is not invertible if this number is overestimated. However, if the parameters of the MLP are in a compact set, we prove that the minimization of a suitable information criteria leads to consistent estimation of the true number of hidden units.
We consider regression models involving multilayer perceptrons (MLP) with one hidden layer and a Gaussian noise. The estimation of the parameters of the MLP can be done by maximizing the likelihood of the model. In this framework, it is difficult to determine the true number of hidden units using an information criterion, like the Bayesian information criteria (BIC), because the information matrix of Fisher is not invertible if the number of hidden units is overestimated. Indeed, the classical theoretical justification of information criteria relies entirely on the invertibility of this matrix…
In the paper, we introduce the maximum entropy estimator based on 2-dimensional empirical distribution of the observation sequence of hidden Markov model , when the sample size is big: in that case computing the maximum likelihood estimator is too consuming in time by the classical Baum-Welch EM algorithm. We prove the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the maximum entropy estimator in a quite general framework, where the asymptotic covariance matrix is explicitly estimated in terms of the 2-dimensional Fisher information. To complement it, the 2-dimensional relative entropy is skillf…
Information Geometry Approach to Parameter Estimation in Hidden Markov Models
本文提出基于信息几何的高效估计量，仅利用 k-记忆数据直方图估计隐马尔可夫过程的转移矩阵，并在切空间上讨论模型等价性。
Singularities of a statistical model are the elements of the model's parameter space which make the corresponding Fisher information matrix degenerate. These are the points for which estimation techniques such as the maximum likelihood estimator and standard Bayesian procedures do not admit the root-$n$ parametric rate of convergence. We propose a general framework for the identification of singularity structures of the parameter space of finite mixtures, and study the impacts of the singularity structures on minimax lower bounds and rates of convergence for the maximum likelihood estimator ov…
Fast inversion of the generalized Fisher transformation of correlation matrices
本文提出一种变分方法证明广义Fisher变换的逆变换为唯一极小值点，并基于此开发GFT-FP+N算法，结合不动点迭代与共轭梯度牛顿步，在基准测试中实现更快且更稳健的收敛。
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