A Short Proof that Phylogenetic Tree Reconstruction by Maximum Likelihood is Hard

Shrinkage Effect in Ancestral Maximum Likelihood

Ancestral maximum likelihood (AML) is a method that simultaneously reconstructs a phylogenetic tree and ancestral sequences from extant data (sequences at the leaves). The tree and ancestral sequences maximize the probability of observing the given data under a Markov model of sequence evolution, in which branch lengths are also optimized but constrained to take the same value on any edge across all sequence sites. AML differs from the more usual form of maximum likelihood (ML) in phylogenetics because ML averages over all possible ancestral sequences. ML has long been known to be statisticall…

树内演化的拟生灭过程：比较系统发育学中的应用

Quasi-birth-and-death processes evolving within trees: Applications to comparative phylogenetics

提出一种在系统发育树中演化的拟生灭过程模型，通过离散化连续性状并开发递归算法计算似然，应用于哺乳动物体型和分布区演化的实证分析。

Phase transition in the sample complexity of likelihood-based phylogeny inference

Reconstructing evolutionary trees from molecular sequence data is a fundamental problem in computational biology. Stochastic models of sequence evolution are closely related to spin systems that have been extensively studied in statistical physics and that connection has led to important insights on the theoretical properties of phylogenetic reconstruction algorithms as well as the development of new inference methods. Here, we study maximum likelihood, a classical statistical technique which is perhaps the most widely used in phylogenetic practice because of its superior empirical accuracy. A…

Phylogenetic analysis accounting for age-dependent death and sampling with applications to epidemics

The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees based on viral genetic sequence data sequentially sampled from an epidemic provides estimates of the past transmission dynamics, by fitting epidemiological models to these trees. To our knowledge, none of the epidemiological models currently used in phylogenetics can account for recovery rates and sampling rates dependent on the time elapsed since transmission. Here we introduce an epidemiological model where infectives leave the epidemic, either by recovery or sampling, after some random time which may follow an arbitrary distribution. We derive an exp…

On asymptotic joint distributions of cherries and pitchforks for random phylogenetic trees

Tree shape statistics provide valuable quantitative insights into evolutionary mechanisms underpinning phylogenetic trees, a commonly used graph representation of evolution systems ranging from viruses to species. By developing limit theorems for a version of extended Pólya urn models in which negative entries are permitted for their replacement matrices, we present strong laws of large numbers and central limit theorems for asymptotic joint distributions of two subtree counting statistics, the number of cherries and that of pitchforks, for random phylogenetic trees generated by two widely use…

On cherry and pitchfork distributions of random rooted and unrooted phylogenetic trees

Tree shape statistics are important for investigating evolutionary mechanisms mediating phylogenetic trees. As a step towards bridging shape statistics between rooted and unrooted trees, we present a comparison study on two subtree statistics known as numbers of cherries and pitchforks for the proportional to distinguishable arrangements (PDA) and the Yule-Harding-Kingman (YHK) models. Based on recursive formulas on the joint distribution of the number of cherries and that of pitchforks, it is shown that cherry distributions are log-concave for both rooted and unrooted trees under these two mo…