In this paper non-asymptotic exponential estimates are derived for the tail distribution of polynomial martingale differences in terms unconditional tails distributions of summands. Applications are considered in the theory of polynomials on independent random variables, to the theory of U-statistics, multiply martingale series and in the theory of weak compactness measures on the Banach spaces. Partially supported by the Israel Ministry of Absorbtion Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 47A45, 47B10, 60F10, 60G42.
In this paper non-asymptotic exponential and moment estimates are derived for tail of distribution for discrete time martingale and martingale transform by means of martingale differences in the terms of moments and tails of distributions of summands and multipliers. We show also the exactness of obtained estimations and consider some applications in the theory of limit theorem for Banach space valued martingales.
In this paper we obtain the non-asymptotic exact moment and tails estimates for polynomial on martingale differences. We give also some examples on order to show the exactness of obtained results.
We extend some known results relating the distribution tails of a continuous local martingale supremum and its quadratic variation to the case of locally square integrable martingales with bounded jumps. The predictable and optional quadratic variations are involved in the main result.
In this paper non-asymptotic exponential and moment estimates are derived for tail of distribution for discrete time martingale under norming sequence 1/n, as in the classical Law of Large Numbers (LLN), by means of martingale differences as a rule in the terms of unconditional moments and tails of distributions of summands. We show also the exactness of obtained estimations.
The following conditions are necessary and sufficient for an arbitrary càdlàg local martingale to be a uniformly integrable martingale: (i) The weak tail of the supremum of its modulus is zero; (ii) its jumps at the first-exit times from compact intervals converge to zero in $L^1$, on the events that those times are finite; and (iii) its almost sure limit is an integrable random variable.
We provide a variant of Azuma's concentration inequality for martingales, in which the standard boundedness requirement is replaced by the milder requirement of a subgaussian tail.
We generalize a famous tail Doob's inequality, relative two non-negative random variables, arising in the martingale theory, in two directions: on the more general source data and on the random variables belonging to the so-called Grand Lebesgue Spaces. We bring also several examples in each sections in order to show the exactness of our estimates.
In a seminal paper Biggins and Kyprianou \cite{BKy04} proved the existence of a non degenerate limit for the {\it Derivative martingale} of the branching random walk. As shown in \cite{Aid11} and \cite{Mad11}, this is an object of central importance in the study of the extremes of the branching random walk. In this paper we investigate the tail distribution of the limit of the {\it Derivative Martingale} by mean of the study of the global minimum of the branching random walk. This new approach leads us to extend the results of \cite{Gui90} and \cite{Bur09} under slighter assumptions.
In this paper non-asymptotic moment estimates are derived for tail of distribution for discrete time polynomial martingale by means of martingale differences as a rule in the terms of unconditional and unconditional relative moments and tails of distributions of summands. We show also the exactness of obtained estimations.
In this paper non-asymptotic exponential estimates are derived for tail of maximum martingale distribution by naturally norming in the spirit of the classical Law of Iterated Logarithm. Key words: Martingales, exponential estimations, moment, Banach spaces of random variables, tail of distribution, conditional expectation.
We present novel martingale concentration inequalities for martingale differences with finite Orlicz-$ψ_α$ norms. Such martingale differences with weak exponential-type tails scatters in many statistical applications and can be heavier than sub-exponential distributions. In the case of one dimension, we prove in general that for a sequence of scalar-valued supermartingale difference, the tail bound depends solely on the sum of squared Orlicz-$ψ_α$ norms instead of the maximal Orlicz-$ψ_α$ norm, generalizing the results of Lesigne & Volný (2001) and Fan et al. (2012). In the multidimensional ca…
For a martingale $(X_n)$ converging almost surely to a random variable $X$, the sequence $(X_n - X)$ is called martingale tail sum. Recently, Neininger [Random Structures Algorithms, 46 (2015), 346-361] proved a central limit theorem for the martingale tail sum of R{é}gnier's martingale for the path length in random binary search trees. Gr{ü}bel and Kabluchko [to appear in Annals of Applied Probability, (2016), arXiv 1410.0469] gave an alternative proof also conjecturing a corresponding law of the iterated logarithm. We prove the central limit theorem with convergence of higher moments and the…
In two recent works, Kuba and Mahmoud (arXiv:1503.090691 and arXiv:1509.09053) introduced the family of two-color affine balanced Polya urn schemes with multiple drawings. We show that, in large-index urns (urn index between $1/2$ and $1$) and triangular urns, the martingale tail sum for the number of balls of a given color admits both a Gaussian central limit theorem as well as a law of the iterated logarithm. The laws of the iterated logarithm are new even in the standard model when only one ball is drawn from the urn in each step (except for the classical Polya urn model). Finally, we prove…
A probabilistic generative network model with $n$ nodes and $m$ overlapping layers is obtained as a superposition of $m$ mutually independent Bernoulli random graphs of varying size and strength. When $n$ and $m$ are large and of the same order of magnitude, the model admits a sparse limiting regime with a tunable power-law degree distribution and nonvanishing clustering coefficient. In this article we prove an asymptotic formula for the joint degree distribution of adjacent nodes. This yields a simple analytical formula for the model assortativity, and opens up ways to analyze rank correlatio…
Hoeffding has shown that tail bounds on the distribution for sampling from a finite population with replacement also apply to the corresponding cases of sampling without replacement. (A special case of this result is that binomial tail bounds apply to the corresponding hypergeometric tails.) We give a new proof of Hoeffding's result by constructing a martingale coupling between the sampling distributions. This construction is given by an explicit combinatorial procedure involving balls and urns. We then apply this construction to create martingale couplings between other pairs of sampling dist…
We study the tail asymptotic of the stationary joint queue length distribution for a generalized Jackson network (GJN for short), assuming its stability. For the two station case, this problem has been recently solved in the logarithmic sense for the marginal stationary distributions under the setting that arrival processes and service times are of phase-type. In this paper, we study similar tail asymptotic problems on the stationary distribution, but problems and assumptions are different. First, the asymptotics are studied not only for the marginal distribution but also the stationary probab…
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）
We study an equivalence of (i) deterministic pathwise statements appearing in the online learning literature (termed \emph{regret bounds}), (ii) high-probability tail bounds for the supremum of a collection of martingales (of a specific form arising from uniform laws of large numbers for martingales), and (iii) in-expectation bounds for the supremum. By virtue of the equivalence, we prove exponential tail bounds for norms of Banach space valued martingales via deterministic regret bounds for the online mirror descent algorithm with an adaptive step size. We extend these results beyond the line…
We investigate the properties of a discrete-time martingale $\{X_m\}_{m\in \mathbb Z_{\geq 0}}$, where all differences between adjacent random variables are limited to be not more than a constant as a promise. In this situation, it is known that the Azuma-Hoeffding inequality holds, which gives an upper bound of a probability for exceptional events. The inequality gives a simple form of the upper bound, and it has been utilized for many investigations. However, the inequality is not tight. We give an explicit expression of a tight upper bound, and we show that it and the bound obtained from th…
Freedman's inequality is a martingale counterpart to Bernstein's inequality. This result shows that the large-deviation behavior of a martingale is controlled by the predictable quadratic variation and a uniform upper bound for the martingale difference sequence. Oliveira has recently established a natural extension of Freedman's inequality that provides tail bounds for the maximum singular value of a matrix-valued martingale. This note describes a different proof of the matrix Freedman inequality that depends on a deep theorem of Lieb from matrix analysis. This argument delivers sharp constan…
The Bernstein inequality is a tight upper bound on tail probabilities for independent random variables. Freedman extended the Bernstein inequality to martingales with differences bounded from above, and then Dzhaparidze and van Zanten generalized Freedman's result to non-bounded locally square integrable martingales. In this paper, we derive some Dzhaparidze-van Zanten type inequalities for self-normalized martingales with square integrable and non-square integrable differences.
We give an explicit description of the law of terminal value $W$ of additive martingales in a remarkable branching stable process. We show that the right tail probability of the terminal value decays exponentially fast and the left tail probability follows that $-\log \mathbb{P}(W<x) \sim \frac{1}{2} (\log x)^2$ as $x \rightarrow 0+$. These are in sharp contrast with results in the literature such as Liu (2000, 2001) and Buraczewski (2009). We further show that the law of $W$ is self-decomposable, and therefore, possesses a unimodal density. We specify the asymptotic behavior at $0$ and at $+\…
Consider the random walk $S_n=ξ_1+...+ξ_n$ with independent and identically distributed increments and negative mean $\mathbf Eξ=-m<0$. Let $M=\sup_{0\le i} S_i$ be the supremum of the random walk. In this note we present derivation of asymptotics for $\mathbf P(M>x), x\to\infty$ for long-tailed distributions. This derivation is based on the martingale arguments and does not require any prior knowledge of the theory of long-tailed distributions. In addition the same approach allows to obtain asymptotics for $\mathbf P(M_τ>x)$, where $M_τ=\max_{0\le i<τ}S_i$ and $τ=\min\{n\ge 1: S_n\le 0 \}$.
Let $M_n= \fsu X1n$ be a sum of independent random variables such that $ X_k\leq 1$, $\E X_k =0$ and $\E X_k^2=\s_k^2$ for all $k$. Hoeffding 1963, Theorem 3, proved that $$¶{M_n \geq nt}\leq H^n(t,p),\quad H(t,p)= \bgl(1+qt/p\bgr)^{p +qt} \bgl({1-t}\bgr)^{q -qt}$$ with $$q=\ffrac 1{1+\s^2},\quad p=1-q, \quad \s^2 =\ffrac {\s_1^2+...+\s_n^2}n,\quad 0<t<1.$$ Bentkus 2004 improved Hoeffding's inequalities using binomial tails as upper bounds. Let $\ga_k =\E X_k^3/\s_k^3$ and $ \vk_k= \E X_k^4/\s_k^4$ stand for the skewness and kurtosis of $X_k$. In this paper we prove (improved) counterparts of …
We provide sharp bounds for the exponential moments and $p$-moments, $1\leqslant p \leqslant 2$, of the terminate distribution of a martingale whose square function is uniformly bounded by one. We introduce a Bellman function for the corresponding extremal problem and reduce it to the already known Bellman function on $\mathrm{BMO}([0,1])$. In the case of tail estimates, a similar reduction does not work exactly, so we come up with a fine supersolution that leads to sharp tail estimates.
Let $(X_i, \mathcal{F}_i)_{i\geq1}$ be a martingale difference sequence in a smooth Banach space. Let $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i, n\geq 1,$ be the partial sums of $(X_i, \mathcal{F}_i)_{i\geq 1}$. We give upper bounds on the quantity $\mathbb{P}\left(\max_{1\leq k\leq n}\lVert S_k\rVert>nx\right)$ in terms of $ n\geq 1$ and $x>0$ in two different situations: when the martingale differences have uniformly bounded exponential moments and when the decay of the tail of the increments is polynomial.
We derive the tail inequalities between two random variables starting from inequalities between its moment, or more generally between its Lebesgue-Riesz norms, which holds true on certain sets of parameters. We consider some applications into the martingale theory.
We derive exponential bounds on probabilities of large deviations for "light tail" martingales taking values in finite-dimensional normed spaces. Our primary emphasis is on the case where the bounds are dimension-independent or nearly so. We demonstrate that this is the case when the norm on the space can be approximated, within an absolute constant factor, by a norm which is differentiable on the unit sphere with a Lipschitz continuous gradient. We also present various examples of spaces possessing the latter property.
Let $(S_0,S_1,...)$ be a supermartingale relative to a nondecreasing sequence of $σ$-algebras $H_{\le0},H_{\le1},...$, with $S_0\le0$ almost surely (a.s.) and differences $X_i:=S_i-S_{i-1}$. Suppose that $X_i\le d$ and $\mathsf {Var}(X_i|H_{\le i-1})\le σ_i^2$ a.s. for every $i=1,2,...$, where $d>0$ and $σ_i>0$ are non-random constants. Let $T_n:=Z_1+...+Z_n$, where $Z_1,...,Z_n$ are i.i.d. r.v.'s each taking on only two values, one of which is $d$, and satisfying the conditions $\mathsf {E}Z_i=0$ and $\mathsf {Var}Z_i=σ^2:=\frac{1}{n}(σ_1^2+...+σ_n^2)$. Then, based on a comparison inequality …
We obtain an uniform tail estimates for natural normed sums of independent random variables (r.v.) with regular varying tails of distributions. We give also many examples on order to show the exactness of offered estimates and discuss some applications in the method Monte-Carlo and statistics, and obtain the sufficient conditions for Central and stable limit theorem in the Banach space of continuous function. There are considered a slight generalization on a random variables with super-heavy tails and martingale difference scheme.
Recently, we adapted exploration and martingale arguments of Nachmias and Peres, in turn based on ideas of Martin-Löf, Karp and Aldous, to prove asymptotic normality of the number $L_1$ of vertices in the largest component $C$ of the random $r$-uniform hypergraph throughout the supercritical regime. In this paper we take these arguments further to prove two new results: strong tail bounds on the distribution of $L_1$, and joint asymptotic normality of $L_1$ and the number $M_1$ of edges of $C$. These results are used in a separate paper "Counting connected hypergraphs via the probabilistic met…
Freedman's inequality is a supermartingale counterpart to Bennett's inequality. This result shows that the tail probabilities of a supermartingale is controlled by the quadratic characteristic and a uniform upper bound for the supermartingale difference sequence. Replacing the quadratic characteristic by $\textrm{H}_k^y:= \sum_{i=1}^k\left(\mathbf{E}(ξ_i^2 |\mathcal{F}_{i-1}) +ξ_i^2\textbf{1}_{\{|ξ_i|> y\}}\right),$ Dzhaparidze and van Zanten (\emph{Stochastic Process. Appl.}, 2001) have extended Freedman's inequality to martingales with unbounded differences. In this paper, we prove that $\te…
We find a simple expression for the probability density of $\int \exp (B_s - s/2) ds$ in terms of its distribution function and the distribution function for the time integral of $\exp (B_s + s/2)$. The relation is obtained with a change of measure argument where expectations over events determined by the time integral are replaced by expectations over the entire probability space. We develop precise information concerning the lower tail probabilities for these random variables as well as for time integrals of geometric Brownian motion with arbitrary constant drift. In particular, $E[ \exp\big…
We prove the existence of nonnegative martingale solutions to a class of stochastic degenerate-parabolic fourth-order PDEs arising in surface-tension driven thin-film flow influenced by thermal noise. The construction applies to a range of mobilites including the cubic one which occurs under the assumption of a no-slip condition at the liquid-solid interface. Since their introduction more than 15 years ago, by Davidovitch, Moro, and Stone and by Grün, Mecke, and Rauscher, the existence of solutions to stochastic thin-film equations for cubic mobilities has been an open problem, even in the cas…
This paper presents new probability inequalities for sums of independent, random, self-adjoint matrices. These results place simple and easily verifiable hypotheses on the summands, and they deliver strong conclusions about the large-deviation behavior of the maximum eigenvalue of the sum. Tail bounds for the norm of a sum of random rectangular matrices follow as an immediate corollary. The proof techniques also yield some information about matrix-valued martingales. In other words, this paper provides noncommutative generalizations of the classical bounds associated with the names Azuma, Benn…
Using martingale methods, we obtain some upper bounds for large and moderate deviations of products of independent and identically distributed elements of GL d (R). We investigate all the possible moment conditions, from super-exponential moments to weak moments of order p \textgreater{} 1, to get a complete picture of the situation. We also prove a moderate deviation principle under an appropriate tail condition.
We consider the first passage percolation model on the ${\bf Z}^d$ lattice. In this model, we assign independently to each edge $e$ a non-negative passage time $t(e)$ with a common distribution $F$. Let $a_{0,n}$ be the passage time from the origin to $(n,0,..., 0)$. Under the exponential tail assumption, Kesten (1993) and Talagrand (1995) investigated the concentration of $a_{0,n}$ from its mean using different methods. With this concentration and the exponential tail assumption, Alexander gave an estimate for the convergence rate for ${\bf E} a_{0,n}$. In this paper, focusing on a moment con…
We are interested in a large queue in a $GI/G/k$ queue with heterogeneous servers. For this, we consider tail asymptotics and weak limit approximations for the stationary distribution of its queue length process in continuous time under a stability condition. Here, two weak limit approximations are considered. One is when the variances of the inter-arrival and/or service times are bounded, and the other is when they get large. Both require a heavy traffic condition. Tail asymptotics and heavy traffic approximations have been separately studied in the literature. We develop a unified approach b…
Consider a family of random walks $S_n^{(a)}=X_1^{(a)}+\cdots+X_n^{(a)}$ with negative drift $\mathbf E X_1^{(a)}=-a<0$ and finite variance $\mbox{var}(X_1^{(a)})=σ^2<\infty$.Let $M^{(a)}=\max_{n\ge 0} S_n^{(a)}$ be the maximums of the random walks. The exponential asymptotics $\mathbf P(aM^{(a)}>x)\sim e^{-2x/σ^2}$, as $a\to 0$, were found by Kingman and are known as heavy traffic approximation in the queueing theory. For subexponential random variables the large deviation asymptotics for $\mathbf P(M^{(a)}>x)\sim \frac{1}{a}\overline F^I(x)$ hold for fixed $a$ as $x\to\infty$. In this paper …
Beijing National Research Center for Information Science and Technology（北京信息科学与技术国家研究中心）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）
It is well known that Hoeffding's inequality has a lot of applications in the signal and information processing fields. How to improve Hoeffding's inequality and find the refinements of its applications have always attracted much attentions. An improvement of Hoeffding inequality was recently given by Hertz \cite{r1}. Eventhough such an improvement is not so big, it still can be used to update many known results with original Hoeffding's inequality, especially for Hoeffding-Azuma inequality for martingales. However, the results in original Hoeffding's inequality and its refinement one by Hertz…
Self-normalized processes arise naturally in statistical applications. Being unit free, they are not affected by scale changes. Moreover, self-normalization often eliminates or weakens moment assumptions. In this paper we present several exponential and moment inequalities, particularly those related to laws of the iterated logarithm, for self-normalized random variables including martingales. Tail probability bounds are also derived. For random variables B_t>0 and A_t, let Y_t(λ)=\exp{λA_t-λ^2B_t^2/2}. We develop inequalities for the moments of A_t/B_{t} or sup_{t\geq 0}A_t/{B_t(\log \log B_{…
