This paper surveys various results about Markov chains on general (non-countable) state spaces. It begins with an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which provide the motivation and context for the theory which follows. Then, sufficient conditions for geometric and uniform ergodicity are presented, along with quantitative bounds on the rate of convergence to stationarity. Many of these results are proved using direct coupling constructions based on minorisation and drift conditions. Necessary and sufficient conditions for Central Limit Theorems (CLTs) are also presented, in some cases proved via the Poisson Equation or direct regeneration constructions. Finally, optimal scaling and weak convergence results for Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are discussed. None of the results presented is new, though many of the proofs are. We also describe some Open Problems.
We consider whether ergodic Markov chains with bounded step size remain bounded in probability when their transitions are modified by an adversary on a bounded subset. We provide counterexamples to show that the answer is no in general, and prove theorems to show that the answer is yes under various additional assumptions. We then use our results to prove convergence of various adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms.
Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) is a popular approach to sample from high dimensional distributions, and the asymptotic variance is a commonly used criterion to evaluate the performance. While most popular MCMC algorithms are reversible, there is a growing literature on the development and analyses of nonreversible MCMC. Chen and Hwang(2013) showed that a reversible MCMC can be improved by adding an antisymmetric perturbation. They also raised a conjecture that it can not be improved if there is no cycle in the corresponding graph. In this paper, we present a rigorous proof of this conjecture. …
We connect known results about diffusion limits of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to the Computer Science notion of algorithm complexity. Our main result states that any diffusion limit of a Markov process implies a corresponding complexity bound (in an appropriate metric). We then combine this result with previously-known MCMC diffusion limit results to prove that under appropriate assumptions, the Random-Walk Metropolis (RWM) algorithm in $d$ dimensions takes $O(d)$ iterations to converge to stationarity, while the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) takes $O(d^{1/3})$ …
Fluid limit techniques have become a central tool to analyze queueing networks over the last decade, with applications to performance analysis, simulation and optimization. In this paper, some of these techniques are extended to a general class of skip-free Markov chains. As in the case of queueing models, a fluid approximation is obtained by scaling time, space and the initial condition by a large constant. The resulting fluid limit is the solution of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) in ``most'' of the state space. Stability and finer ergodic properties for the stochastic model then fo…
We establish $L^2$-exponential convergence rate for three popular piecewise deterministic Markov processes for sampling: the randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method, the zigzag process, and the bouncy particle sampler. Our analysis is based on a variational framework for hypocoercivity, which combines a Poincaré-type inequality in time-augmented state space and a standard $L^2$ energy estimate. Our analysis provides explicit convergence rate estimates, which are more quantitative than existing results.
In this paper we propose a novel variance reduction approach for additive functionals of Markov chains based on minimization of an estimate for the asymptotic variance of these functionals over suitable classes of control variates. A distinctive feature of the proposed approach is its ability to significantly reduce the overall finite sample variance. This feature is theoretically demonstrated by means of a deep non asymptotic analysis of a variance reduced functional as well as by a thorough simulation study. In particular we apply our method to various MCMC Bayesian estimation problems where…
I show how any reversible Markov chain on a finite state space that is irreducible, and hence suitable for estimating expectations with respect to its invariant distribution, can be used to construct a non-reversible Markov chain on a related state space that can also be used to estimate these expectations, with asymptotic variance at least as small as that using the reversible chain (typically smaller). The non-reversible chain achieves this improvement by avoiding (to the extent possible) transitions that backtrack to the state from which the chain just came. The proof that this modification…
In many modern applications, difficulty in evaluating the posterior density makes performing even a single MCMC step slow. This difficulty can be caused by intractable likelihood functions, but also appears for routine problems with large data sets. Many researchers have responded by running approximate versions of MCMC algorithms. In this note, we develop quantitative bounds for showing the ergodicity of these approximate samplers. We then use these bounds to study the bias-variance trade-off of approximate MCMC algorithms. We apply our results to simple versions of recently proposed algorith…
We establish an ordering criterion for the asymptotic variances of two consistent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators: an importance sampling (IS) estimator, based on an approximate reversible chain and subsequent IS weighting, and a standard MCMC estimator, based on an exact reversible chain. Essentially, we relax the criterion of the Peskun type covariance ordering by considering two different invariant probabilities, and obtain, in place of a strict ordering of asymptotic variances, a bound of the asymptotic variance of IS by that of the direct MCMC. Simple examples show that IS can …
We prove a central limit theorem for a general class of adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms driven by sub-geometrically ergodic Markov kernels. We discuss in detail the special case of stochastic approximation. We use the result to analyze the asymptotic behavior of an adaptive version of the Metropolis Adjusted Langevin algorithm with a heavy tailed target density.
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) lies at the core of modern Bayesian methodology, much of which would be impossible without it. Thus, the convergence properties of MCMCs have received significant attention, and in particular, proving (geometric) ergodicity is of critical interest. Trust in the ability of MCMCs to sample from modern-day high-dimensional posteriors, however, has been limited by a widespread perception that these chains typically experience serious convergence problems. In this paper, we first demonstrate that contemporary methods for obtaining convergence rates have serious limit…
Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) is a class of MCMC algorithms where the proposal distribution changes at every iteration of the chain. In this case it is important to verify that such a Markov Chain indeed has a stationary distribution. In this paper we discuss a diffusion approximation to a discrete time AMCMC. This diffusion approximation is different when compared to the diffusion approximation as in Gelman, Gilks and Roberts (1997) where the state space increases in dimension to infinity. In our approach the time parameter is sped up in such a way that the limiting distribution (…
Evaluating the degree of partisan districting (Gerrymandering) in a statistical framework typically requires an ensemble of districting plans which are drawn from a prescribed probability distribution that adheres to a realistic and non-partisan criteria. In this article we introduce novel non-reversible Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods for the sampling of such districting plans which have improved mixing properties in comparison to previously used (reversible) MCMC algorithms. In doing so we extend the current framework for construction of non-reversible Markov chains on discrete sampl…
We show fundamental properties of the Markov semigroup of recently proposed MCMC algorithms based on Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) such as the Bouncy Particle Sampler, the Zig-Zag process or the Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. Under assumptions typically satisfied in MCMC settings, we prove that PDMPs are Feller and that their generator admits the space of infinitely differentiable functions with compact support as a core. As we illustrate via martingale problems and a simplified proof of the invariance of target distributions, these results provide a fundamental …
We introduce the idea that resampling from past observations in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler can fasten convergence. We prove that proper resampling from the past does not disturb the limit distribution of the algorithm. We illustrate the method with two examples. The first on a Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models and the other on Bayesian phylogeny reconstruction.
