概率期望与非概率期望的表征与推理
Characterizing and Reasoning about Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Expectation
摘要:
期望是概率论的核心概念。期望的概念也适用于其他不确定性的概念。我们引入了一个命题逻辑推理的期望,语义取决于潜在的表示的不确定性。在基本表示是(a)概率,(b)概率测度集,(c)置信函数和(d)可能性测度的情况下,我们给出了该逻辑的合理而完整的公理化.我们表明,这种逻辑是更有表现力的比相应的逻辑推理的可能性的情况下的概率措施集,但同等表现力的情况下,概率,信念,和可能性。最后,我们证明了这些逻辑的可满足性是NP-完全的,并不比命题逻辑的可满足性难。
英文摘要:
Expectation is a central notion in probability theory. The notion of expectation also makes sense for other notions of uncertainty. We introduce a propositional logic for reasoning about expectation, where the semantics depends on the underlying representation of uncertainty. We give sound and complete axiomatizations for the logic in the case that the underlying representation is (a) probability, (b) sets of probability measures, (c) belief functions, and (d) possibility measures. We show that this logic is more expressive than the corresponding logic for reasoning about likelihood in the case of sets of probability measures, but equi-expressive in the case of probability, belief, and possibility. Finally, we show that satisfiability for these logics is NP-complete, no harder than satisfiability for propositional logic.
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