翻新还是替换：时机、成本与基础设施如何塑造美国原生钢铁脱碳
Relining or Replacement: How Timing, Costs, and Infrastructure Shape U.S. Primary Steel Decarbonization
AI总结：
该研究针对美国原生钢铁脱碳，通过建模量化转型成本与基础设施需求，提出以清洁天然气基直接还原铁有序转型，可减排57%并保留深度脱碳选项。
摘要：
高炉即将进行的翻新为美国原生钢铁脱碳创造了重要的投资窗口。我们采用工厂层面的产能规划与随机运营建模，量化了在供给侧激励下，将传统高炉场地转型为直接还原铁（DRI）所需的成本、基础设施及财政要求。在基准假设下，近零排放的氢基直接还原铁（DRI）的补贴后溢价（含翻新费用）为每吨钢铁272至427美元，天然气基生产的补贴后溢价为每吨115至181美元。位于传统场地、年产能200万吨钢铁的代表性设施，分别需要约4至6.5吉瓦的可再生能源发电及0.7至1.1吉瓦的电池储能。这对应未翻新的全部高炉 fleet（船队，此处指设施群）中，氢基路径需65吉瓦、天然气基路径需12吉瓦的配套规模。这些发现将替换时机与成本、基础设施及公众支持关联，推动通过清洁天然气基直接还原铁实现有序转型，以避免高炉翻新、较高炉减少57%的排放，并保留通过氢替代或碳捕获实现更深层次脱碳的选项。
英文摘要：
Imminent blast furnace relinings create a consequential investment window for U.S. primary steel decarbonization. Using plant-level capacity planning and stochastic operations modeling, we quantify the costs, infrastructure, and fiscal requirements to transition legacy blast furnace sites to direct reduction under supply-side incentives. Under baseline assumptions, post-subsidy premiums above average blast furnace costs, including relining, are 272 to 427 dollars per ton of steel for near-zero-emission hydrogen-based direct reduction and 115 to 181 dollars for natural-gas-based production. Representative facilities producing two million tons of steel annually at legacy locations require approximately 4 to 6.5 and 0.7 to 1.1 GW of renewable generation and battery storage, respectively. This translates to 65 and 12 GW across the unrelined fleet for hydrogen- and natural gas-based pathways, respectively. These findings connect replacement timing to costs, infrastructure, and public support, motivating a sequenced transition through clean-powered natural-gas-based direct reduction to avert blast furnace relining, reduce emissions by 57 percent relative to blast furnaces, and preserve options for deeper decarbonization through hydrogen substitution or carbon capture.
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