比特币预言机的链上考古：有限可观测性下的使用证据

中文摘要 AI 辅助

在以太坊让“预言机问题”成为家喻户晓的术语之前，比特币早已拥有作为数据源、密钥发布服务、联合签名者和仲裁者的预言机，这些预言机在主链上承载着真实价值。本研究追溯了从早期到2026年7月期间预言机的使用情况及活动证据的变化。我们结合了Counterparty投注的完整统计（1149次投注）、对截至958628区块的完整比特币链的分析，以及在8.54亿行公钥索引中搜索Reality Keys、Orisi、Bitrated和Oraclize的已记录密钥。我们还从存档浏览器和实时Nostr中继中恢复了DLC预言机记录。得出两个结果：第一，早期合约仍保留在链上，但许多事件描述已消失，协议编码和API限制使访问幸存记录变得复杂；不过对于现代DLC，即使使用它们的合约无法在链上被识别，公开的预言机公告仍可留存。在检查的脚本类别中，排除包含铭文数据的支出后，2024年未揭示任何脚本的支出占比峰值达81.9%。第二，公开注册表可能对比预言机使用情况产生误导：在Counterparty中，95%的2018年前声明预言机费用的来源从未被投注；在Bitrated中，存档密钥总体上仅0.1%出现在链上，而2014年捕获的19个密钥中有10个出现。Counterparty的匹配交易量以体育为主，而存档的DLC公告则以每日价格序列为主。这些发现表明，协议设计和数据保存如何塑造比特币预言机使用的历史记录。

英文摘要

Before Ethereum made the "oracle problem" a household term, Bitcoin already had oracles serving as feeds, key-release services, federated signers, and arbiters that carried real value on the main chain. This study traces their use and the changing evidence of oracle activity from early days through July 2026. We combine a complete census of Counterparty betting (1,149 bets), analysis of the full Bitcoin chain through block 958,628, and searches for documented keys from Reality Keys, Orisi, Bitrated, and Oraclize in an 854-million-row public-key index. We also recover DLC oracle records from an archived explorer and live Nostr relays. Two results emerge. First, early contracts remain on-chain, but many event descriptions have disappeared, and protocol encoding and API limitations complicate access to the surviving record. However, for modern DLCs, public oracle announcements can survive even when the contracts using them cannot be identified on-chain. In the script classes examined, the share of spends that reveal no script peaks at 81.9% in 2024 after excluding spends containing inscription data. Second, public registries can give a misleading picture of oracle use. In Counterparty, 95% of pre-2018 sources declaring an oracle fee were never bet on. In Bitrated, 0.1% of archived keys appear on-chain overall, compared with 10 of 19 keys captured in 2014. Sport dominates Counterparty's matched volume, while a daily price series dominates the archived DLC announcements. These findings show how protocol design and data preservation shape the historical record of Bitcoin oracle use.

发表机构

• University of Turin（都灵大学）

机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。