气候合作与空间产业转移：稳定性、排放及区域政策激励

中文摘要 AI 辅助

气候政策会改变生产成本并重塑生产的地理分布。我们在一个聚焦模型中研究这一空间渠道，其中可流动的产业活动会对当地吸引力作出响应，集聚效应会增强吸引力，而碳政策会降低排放密集型区位的盈利能力。该模型得出一个明确的碳政策阈值，用于区分空间不稳定性与稳定性。当排放强度随当地产业密度上升时，即便产业活动总量不变，空间集聚也会提高总排放量。将这些动态纳入两辖区政策博弈会造成区域激励与集体激励之间的差距：每个政府都重视位于其境内的产业活动，而总福利则会将政策对整个经济集聚的影响内部化。在可转移效用下，合作可选择阈值稳定侧的政策，而非合作政策则位于不稳定侧。数值模拟展示了这一制度转变。基于NUTS2级的产业排放与总增加值的欧洲区域证据，证实了排放与活动的正相关关系，并确定了衡量转移与集聚效应所需的经验量。该分析将气候合作与生产的空间组织关联起来，为政策诱导的产业转移建立了基准。

英文摘要

Climate policy changes production costs and can reshape the geography of production. We study this spatial channel in a focused model where mobile industrial activity responds to local attractiveness, agglomeration strengthens attractiveness, and carbon policy lowers the profitability of emissions-intensive locations. The model yields an explicit carbon-policy threshold separating spatial instability from stability. When emissions intensity rises with local industrial density, spatial concentration raises aggregate emissions even with unchanged total industrial activity. Embedding these dynamics in a two-jurisdiction policy game creates a wedge between regional and collective incentives: each government values the industrial activity located within its own territory, while aggregate welfare internalizes the effect of policy on economy-wide concentration. With transferable utility, cooperation can select a policy on the stable side of the threshold while the non-cooperative policy lies on the unstable side. A numerical exercise illustrates this regime change. European regional evidence, based on industrial emissions and gross value added at NUTS2 level, documents a positive emissions-activity association and identifies the empirical quantities needed to measure relocation and concentration effects. The analysis links climate cooperation to the spatial organization of production and establishes a benchmark for policy-induced industrial relocation.

发表机构

• University of Foggia（福贾大学）

机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。