发表机构
Guangzhou University; York University（广州大学; 约克大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究通过构建含无症状感染和筛查率的媒介-宿主模型，揭示基孔肯雅热疫情复发机制，提出将控制策略升级为“十二字”方针，强调早期筛查对抑制疫情的关键作用。
AI 中文摘要
本文探讨了在中国当前针对基孔肯雅热的蚊媒控制政策下——即“清除积水、杀灭成蚊、防止叮咬”——疫情仍可能复发并持续上升的挑战。通过构建一个纳入无症状感染和筛查率的媒介-宿主动力学模型，我们推导出疫情峰值和达峰时间的近似解析表达式，并揭示了短期瞬态与长期结果之间的内在联系。在三种情景下的模拟——人类引入、蚊媒引入以及人类-蚊媒联合引入——表明：（i）即使媒介种群被有效抑制，无症状携带者仍能维持传播；（ii）筛查率对达峰时间的影响是非单调的，存在一个临界阈值能最大化疫情延迟；（iii）适度筛查既能抑制第一波疫情，又能避免留下过大的易感人群池从而放大后续疫情波。据此，我们将原有政策升级为“十二字”预防、缓解和控制策略——“清除积水、杀灭成蚊、防止叮咬、早期筛查病例”——为基孔肯雅热及其他蚊媒疾病提供理论支持。
英文摘要
This paper addresses the challenge that, under China's current mosquito-control policy for chikungunya---\textit{clearing stagnant water, killing adult mosquitoes, and preventing bites}---epidemics can still recur and continue to rise. By constructing a vector--host dynamical model that incorporates asymptomatic infections and a screening rate, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the epidemic peak value and peak time, and reveal the intrinsic link between short-term transients and long-term outcomes. Simulations across three scenarios---human-seeded, mosquito-seeded, and joint human--mosquito-seeded---show that (i) even when the vector population is effectively suppressed, asymptomatic carriers can still sustain transmission; (ii) the effect of the screening rate on the peak time is non-monotonic, and there exists a critical threshold that maximizes the delay of the epidemic; and (iii) moderate screening can both suppress the first wave and avoid leaving an excessively large susceptible pool that would amplify subsequent waves. Accordingly, we upgrade the original policy to a \textit{Twelve-character} strategy for prevention, mitigation, and control---\textit{clearing stagnant water, killing adult mosquitoes, preventing bites, and screening cases early}---providing theoretical support for chikungunya and other mosquito-borne diseases.
Comments15 pages, 4 figures Accepted by SCIENTIA SINICA Mathematica (in Chinese)
