发表机构
State University of New York at Buffalo（纽约州立大学布法罗分校）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
针对现有断层位移危险性分析仅用总体位移的局限，提出基于破裂级重建的概率框架，利用FDHI数据库，量化破裂数量、位移分配与空间分布，实现基础设施特定评估。
AI 中文摘要
穿越活动断层的结构会受到永久地面变形的影响，这可能对基础设施施加严峻的荷载需求。尽管概率性断层位移危险性分析（PFDHA）已取得显著进展，但现有的主断层位移模型使用总体位移，隐含地假设重叠的破裂分支同时作用于场地需求。这一假设适用于区域危险性表征，但无法代表有限的结构尺寸，其中只有部分破裂可能穿过结构。本研究提出了一个概率框架，将总体主位移重新表述为破裂级表征，用于针对特定基础设施的危险性评估。利用包含75次地表破裂地震的断层位移危险性倡议（FDHI）数据库，基于事件和段坐标系统，从绘制的破裂几何和位移观测中重建主破裂分支。该框架对三个量进行建模：（1）重叠主破裂的数量；（2）在保持总体位移预算的同时，将总体位移在单个破裂分支间进行分配；（3）破裂分支相对于主断层迹线的空间分布。这些组成部分被整合到一个广义的PFDHA公式中，该公式考虑了地震震级、断层类型、破裂曲率、结构足迹和断层迹线位置不确定性。基准断层穿越应用证明了该框架估算单个破裂分支穿过结构的概率及相关位移需求的能力。该框架为基于总体位移的模型提供了一种物理上一致的扩展，并为明确考虑破裂几何和有限穿越尺寸的特定基础设施PFDHA提供了基础。
英文摘要
Structures crossing active faults are subjected to permanent ground deformation that can impose severe demands on infrastructure. Although probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) has advanced considerably, existing principal fault displacement models use aggregate displacement, implicitly assuming that overlapping rupture strands contribute simultaneously to site demand. This assumption is suitable for regional hazard characterization but does not represent finite structural dimensions, where only a subset of ruptures may intersect a structure. This study presents a probabilistic framework that reformulates aggregate principal displacement into a rupture-level representation for infrastructure-specific hazard assessment. Using the Fault Displacement Hazard Initiative (FDHI) database of 75 surface-rupturing earthquakes, principal rupture strands are reconstructed from mapped rupture geometries and displacement observations using event- and segment-based coordinate systems. The framework models three quantities: (1) the number of overlapping principal ruptures, (2) partitioning of aggregate displacement among individual rupture strands while preserving the aggregate displacement budget, and (3) the spatial distribution of rupture strands relative to the primary fault trace. These components are integrated into a generalized PFDHA formulation accounting for earthquake magnitude, style of faulting, rupture curvature, structural footprint, and fault-trace location uncertainty. Benchmark fault-crossing applications demonstrate the framework's ability to estimate the probability that individual rupture strands intersect a structure and the associated displacement demand. The framework provides a physically consistent extension of aggregate-based models and a basis for infrastructure-specific PFDHA that explicitly accounts for rupture geometry and finite crossing dimensions.
