发表机构
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国科学技术院）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究利用基于体物理性质与元素组成的回归集成模型预测聚合物原子氧侵蚀产率，在MISSE-2数据上验证，并探讨了模型局限性与地面验证问题，支持轨道数据筛选模型的进一步评估。
AI 中文摘要
在低地球轨道中，原子氧（AO）会侵蚀聚合物表面，但耐久性数据有限。我们评估了一个基于37种MISSE-2聚合物训练的回归集成模型，该模型使用了八个选定的体物理性质和五种元素组成比率。其存档的留一法交叉验证R²(log)为0.768；该估计值依赖于使用完整训练表进行的特征选择。对于九种MISSE-2后的聚合物，集成模型给出的R²(log)为-0.037，且所有预测值均在两倍因子范围内。训练集的算术平均基线也满足所有九种聚合物的该容差，这突显了其狭窄目标范围所提供的有限区分度。地面比较包括四种PLAVIS等级。对于一种成分未公开的训练外神秘聚合物，预测的侵蚀产率与地面测量值相差在1.92倍因子内。相互矛盾的PLAVIS测量记录阻碍了明确的残留物-侵蚀排序或地面验证评分的确定。热残留、SEM对比度和表面化学提供了不同的观测证据；它们并未确立保护层机制。这些结果支持在调和测量记录和前瞻性固定输入的基础上，进一步评估轨道数据筛选模型。
英文摘要
Atomic oxygen (AO) erodes polymer surfaces in low Earth orbit, but durability data are limited. We evaluated a regression ensemble trained on 37 MISSE-2 polymers using eight selected bulk properties and five elemental-composition ratios. Its archived leave-one-out R^2(log) was 0.768; this estimate is conditional on feature selection using the complete training table. For nine post-MISSE-2 polymers, the ensemble gave R^2(log) = -0.037 and all predictions were within a factor of two. The training arithmetic-mean baseline also met that tolerance for all nine, highlighting the limited discrimination provided by their narrow target range. Ground-based comparisons included four PLAVIS grades. For an out-of-training mystery polymer with undisclosed composition, the predicted erosion yield was within a factor of 1.92 of the ground-based measurement. Conflicting PLAVIS measurement records prevent a definitive residue-erosion ordering or ground-validation score. Thermal residue, SEM contrast and surface chemistry provide distinct observational evidence; they do not establish a protective-layer mechanism. The results support further evaluation of orbital-data screening models with reconciled measurement records and prospectively fixed inputs..
