发表机构
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Nevada, Reno（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校; 内华达大学里诺分校）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
针对探管-锥套式空中加油的对接不确定性，提出融合视觉、GPS和航空电子设备的不确定性感知架构，经保形校准与协方差量化设计预测控制器，仿真中显著提升对接成功率并降低误差。
AI 中文摘要
探管-锥套式加油（PDR）要求在相对状态估计和闭环运动均存在不确定性的情况下，接收探管与未安装仪器的动态移动锥套实现精确的末端对准。现有的基于视觉的对接方法提供相对状态估计，但通常不以能够告知鲁棒对接性能所需控制权限的方式量化估计和操作不确定性。我们提出了一种基于不确定性的视觉PDR对接架构，该架构在扩展卡尔曼滤波器中融合了基于关键点的锥套测量、差分GPS和航空电子设备。分裂保形校准表征了融合的探管到锥套位移估计中的近接触误差，而基于协方差的操作不确定性量化在建模的交接变异性和扰动下设计了位置离散限制以及修正指令方差预算。由此产生的不确定性统计量为条件范围的确定性预测控制器定义了几何和指令裕度。在具有四种控制器变体且每种变体运行50次的高保真FlightGear/JSBSim仿真中，组合裕度控制器实现了45/50次居中的篮筐平面穿越，而标称MPC为34/50。中位平面穿越误差从0.231米降至0.175米，经验90百分位数从0.403米降至0.286米，而滚转指令均方根从0.22度增加到0.48度。
英文摘要
Probe-and-drogue refueling (PDR) requires accurate terminal alignment of a receiver probe with an uninstrumented, dynamically moving drogue despite uncertainty in both relative-state estimation and closed-loop motion. Existing vision-based docking approaches provide relative-state estimates, but generally do not quantify estimation and operational uncertainty in a way that informs the control authority required for robust docking performance. We present an uncertainty-aware vision-based PDR docking architecture that fuses keypoint-based drogue measurements, differential GPS, and avionics in an extended Kalman filter. Split conformal calibration characterizes near-contact error in the fused probe-to-drogue displacement estimate, while a covariance-based operational uncertainty quantification designs position-dispersion limits along with corrective-command variance budgets under modeled handoff variability and disturbances. The resulting uncertainty statistics define geometric and command margins for a range-conditioned deterministic predictive controller. In high-fidelity FlightGear/JSBSim simulations with four controller variants and 50 runs per variant, the combined-margin controller achieved 45/50 centered basket-plane crossings versus 34/50 for nominal MPC. Median planar crossing error decreased from 0.231 to 0.175~$\mathrm{m}$ and the empirical 90th percentile from 0.403 to 0.286~$\mathrm{m}$, while the roll-command RMS increased from 0.22$^\circ$ to 0.48$^\circ$.
