发表机构
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH; Ruhr-Universität Bochum（于利希研究中心有限公司; 波鸿鲁尔大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究通过马尔可夫决策过程逐厂求解欧洲850个化石燃料电厂的退役阈值，发现碳价格不确定性使阈值提高约10%，政策可信度可替代价格水平以促进电厂提前退役。
AI 中文摘要
减缓气候变化路径要求化石燃料电厂在其技术寿命结束之前就退役，然而退役决策通常源自成本最小化的系统模型，而非电厂所有者所面临的决策。本研究探讨了使关闭对运营商更有利的碳价格阈值，以及持续排放所带来的持续成本。针对由850个机组组成的欧洲化石燃料电厂群，逐厂求解了一个有限时域的马尔可夫决策过程，其中碳价格随机变动，电厂则确定性老化。价格过程的构建使得扩大其范围不会改变预期价格，从而将不确定性的影响与价格水平的影响分离开来。对于所考虑的所有燃料，关闭阈值均低于近期欧盟配额价格，且敏感区间远低于这些价格，因此进一步的价格上涨不太可能成为该电厂群退役的约束性工具。由于决定碳价格必须侵蚀多少利润空间的是燃料成本而非排放，因此碳强度最低的产能首先退役。在预期价格不变的情况下，不确定性使阈值提高了约十分之一：一个可信稳定的碳价格所导致的退役产能，与一个约高出十分之一的波动价格相同。因此，政策的可信度可以替代价格水平。
英文摘要
Mitigation pathways require fossil power plants to retire well before the end of their technical lives, yet retirement decisions are typically derived from cost-minimizing system models rather than from the decision facing the plant's owner. This study investigates the carbon price threshold at which closure becomes more advantageous for an operator, as well as the ongoing costs associated with continued emissions. A finite-horizon Markov decision process is solved plant by plant for the European fossil fleet of 850 units, with a carbon price that moves stochastically and plants that age deterministically. The price process is constructed so that widening its range leaves the expected price unchanged, isolating the effect of uncertainty from the effect of price level. Closure thresholds fall below recent EU allowance prices for all fuels considered, and the sensitive range lies well beneath them, so further price increases are unlikely to be the binding instrument for retiring this fleet. Because fuel costs rather than emissions determine how much margin a carbon price must erode, the least carbon-intensive capacity retires first. Uncertainty raises the thresholds by about a tenth at an unchanged expected price: a credibly stable carbon price retires the same capacity as a volatile price roughly a tenth higher. Policy credibility therefore substitutes for price level.
