AI 中文总结
本研究探讨群体判断聚合的三大挑战（一致性、防操纵、真相追踪），证明相关定理，并指出中位数方法虽不完美但表现良好，以实现集体智能。
AI 中文摘要
假设一个委员会、专家小组或其他群体正在对某些议题做出判断，这些议题可能不仅仅是是/否问题（例如被告是否有罪），还可能是具有多个可能取值的变量（例如宏观经济或气象变量，或出行方向）。此外，不同议题之间可能存在相互关联，例如经济或气候变量的情况。群体如何基于成员的个人判断达成“智能”的集体判断？我们研究了这一判断聚合问题所提出的三个挑战。首先，合理的聚合方法（例如将每个议题的集体判断定义为个人判断的平均值或中位数）可能产生不一致的集体判断。其次，许多聚合方法容易受到策略性投票的操纵。最后，并非所有聚合方法都有助于在相关议题上追踪真相。我们针对所有这三个挑战证明了新的不可能性或可能性定理，明确了以一致、不可操纵且能追踪真相的方式产生集体判断所需的条件，从而通过聚合实现集体智能。总体而言，中位数方法虽然不完美，但表现相当不错。我们还指出了我们的分析与非人类群体决策的相关性。
英文摘要
Suppose a committee, expert panel, or other group is making judgments on some issues, where these may be not just yes/no-questions, such as whether a defendant is guilty, but also variables with many possible values, such as macroeconomic or meteorological variables or travel directions. Furthermore, there may be interconnections between different issues, as in the case of economic or climate variables. How can the group arrive at "intelligent" collective judgments, based on the group members' individual judgments? We investigate three challenges raised by this judgment-aggregation problem. First, reasonable methods of aggregation (such as defining the collective judgment for each issue as the average or median judgment) can produce inconsistent collective judgments. Secondly, many methods of aggregation are manipulable by strategic voting. Finally, not all methods of aggregation are conducive to tracking the truth on the issues in question. We prove new impossibility or possibility theorems on all three challenges, identifying what it takes to produce collective judgments in a consistent, non-manipulable, and truth-tracking manner and thereby to achieve collective intelligence through aggregation. Overall, the median method, though imperfect, performs reasonably well. We also note the relevance of our analysis for non-human group decisions.
CommentsThis is a preprint of a paper published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2026) 381 (1948): 20240454
Journal refPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2026) 381 (1948): 20240454
