发表机构
Yokohama National University（横滨国立大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
研究中国县改区与县改市两类行政改革对企业污染的影响，发现集权化改革降低当地污染但将污染转移至邻近县，赋权改革则显著增加污染，改革仅重塑污染空间配置而非减少总量。
AI 中文摘要
中国的行政区划改革在不改变自然地理的情况下，改变了地方权力和增长激励的分配。我们利用企业-年度污染面板数据（1998-2013年）和边界配对研究设计（比较同一县界两侧的企业），研究了两种制度内容相反的改革——县改区（集权化：县被并入市辖区）和县改市（赋权：县升级为县级市）。集权化改革通过更清洁的生产使当地氮氧化物强度降低14.8%，且未缩减产出或就业；赋权改革则通过粗放型增长使化学需氧量、粉尘和废水排放水平提高87%-95%。当地减排并非净减排：同属一个地级市的邻近县的氮氧化物排放上升（+0.77，p<0.01），再配置遵循行政边界而非地理距离，这一点在卫星环境数据中得到证实，且并非由风或水传输驱动。这种再配置通过现有邻近企业变得更脏来实现，而非通过企业迁移或新企业进入。一项粗略的福利计算显示，唯一显著的减排（氮氧化物，每年4700万元人民币，置信区间跨越零）带来的福利收益在统计上不显著，而县改市改革造成的损失为每年23亿元人民币。这些发现表明，边界改革重塑了污染在行政边界上的空间配置，而非减少污染。
英文摘要
Administrative boundary reforms in China alter the assignment of local authority and growth incentives without changing physical geography. We study two reforms with opposite institutional content---county-to-district (centralization: a county absorbed into a municipality as an urban district) and county-to-city (empowerment: a county upgraded to a county-level city)---using a firm-year pollution panel (1998--2013) and a border-pair research design that compares firms on opposite sides of the same county border. Centralizing reform lowers local NOx intensity by 14.8% through cleaner production, without shrinking output or employment; empowering reform raises COD, dust, and wastewater levels by 87--95\% through dirty growth. The local abatement is not net abatement: NOx rises in same-prefecture neighbor counties (+0.77, p<0.01), reallocation follows administrative boundaries rather than geographic distance, is confirmed in satellite ambient data, and is not driven by wind or water transport. The reallocation operates through incumbent neighbor firms becoming dirtier, not through firm relocation or new entry. A back-of-the-envelope welfare calculation yields a statistically insignificant welfare gain from the only significant abatement (NOx, \textyen 47 million/yr, CI crossing zero) and a damage of -\textyen 2.3 billion/yr from county-to-city reform. These findings show that boundary reforms reshape the spatial configuration of pollution across administrative boundaries rather than reducing it.
