发表机构
J.E. Cairnes School of Business & Economics, University of Galway; Ryan Institute, University of Galway（杰伊·E·凯恩斯商学院与经济系，高威大学; 瑞安研究所，高威大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究利用大语言模型分析2012-2025年爱尔兰公共话语，开发定制化洪水福祉工具，识别压力源激活与中介路径，为洪水福祉研究提供非侵入性话语方法及时间序列数据集。
AI 中文摘要
洪水是一种环境危害，会对暴露其中的个体产生社会和心理后果，塑造威胁评估、感知应对能力、社会支持获取以及对机构回应的信心。本文利用Meta内容库中的大规模、非侵入性公共话语，研究2012年至2025年爱尔兰与洪水相关的福祉。我们开发了一个定制化的洪水福祉工具，包含三个领域：情感-认知困扰评估、感知效能与能动性减弱、以及感知的关系-机构连通性。随后，我们设计了一个基于大语言模型的洪水福祉推理流程，以大规模地从公共话语中提取多指标、多领域的洪水福祉度量。分析揭示了爱尔兰洪水话语中的压力源激活和社会-生态韧性中介路径。洪水压力源直接激活情感-认知困扰评估、感知效能与能动性减弱以及感知的关系-机构连通性。分析进一步识别出两条主要中介路径：一条是评估-效能路径，将洪水暴露与威胁评估、情感负担、不确定性和感知应对能力联系起来；另一条是社会缓冲路径，其中社会和机构保护资源与感知效能及对洪水相关逆境的评估相关联。本文通过引入定制化工具、识别洪水话语中的激活和中介路径，并生成一个用于研究反复洪水暴露下福祉、适应和韧性的时间序列数据集，为洪水福祉研究贡献了一种非侵入性的基于话语的方法。
英文摘要
Flooding is an environmental hazard that produces social and psychological consequences for exposed individuals, shaping threat appraisal, perceived coping capacity, access to social support, and confidence in institutional response. This paper studies flood-related wellbeing in Ireland from 2012 to 2025 using large-scale, unobtrusive public discourse from Meta Content Library. We develop a bespoke flood-wellbeing instrument organised with three domains: \emph{affective--cognitive distress appraisal}, \emph{diminished perceived efficacy and agency}, and \emph{perceived relational--institutional connectedness}. We then design a flood-wellbeing reasoning pipeline with large language models to extract multi-indicator, multi-domain flood-wellbeing measures from public discourse at scale. The analysis reveals both stressor activation and social--ecological resilience mediation pathways in Irish flood discourse. Flood stressors directly activate affective--cognitive distress appraisal, diminished perceived efficacy and agency, and perceived relational--institutional connectedness. The analysis further identifies two major mediation pathways: an appraisal--efficacy pathway linking flood exposure to threat appraisal, affective burden, uncertainty, and perceived coping capacity; and a social-buffering pathway in which social and institutional protective resources are associated with perceived efficacy and appraisal of flood-related adversity. The paper contributes an unobtrusive discourse-based approach to flood-wellbeing research by introducing a bespoke instrument, identifying activation and mediation pathways in flood discourse, and producing a temporal dataset for studying wellbeing, adaptation, and resilience under recurrent flood exposure.
