论显著性检验与p-hacking的十九世纪起源
On the nineteenth-century origins of significance testing and p-hacking
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本文追溯显著性检验与p-hacking的19世纪起源，质疑现代改进提议的有效性，主张简化统计教学，强调探索性数据分析和通过下注检验概率的方法。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
尽管“显著性检验”、“p值”和“置信区间”这些名称直到20世纪才被使用，但它们所命名的方法在19世纪就已经被使用并被滥用。了解这段更早的历史有助于我们评估目前正在讨论的改进统计检验和估计的一些想法。本文首先叙述了拉普拉斯发现中心极限定理之后统计检验和估计的发展，随后叙述了这些思想在20世纪初传入英语世界的数理统计文化的过程。我认为，这段更早的历史使人们对许多旨在改进显著性检验和p值以及防止滥用的竞争性提议的有效性产生了怀疑。与其进一步复杂化我们如今教授统计学的方式，不如搁置大部分20世纪的修饰，强调探索性数据分析和通过下注反对概率来检验概率的思想。
英文摘要
Although the names \emph{significance test}, \emph{p-value}, and \emph{confidence interval} came into use only in the 20th century, the methods they name were already used and abused in the 19th century. Knowledge of this earlier history can help us evaluate some of the ideas for improving statistical testing and estimation currently being discussed. This article recounts first the development of statistical testing and estimation after Laplace's discovery of the central limit theorem and then the subsequent transmission of these ideas into the English-language culture of mathematical statistics in the early 20th century. I argue that the earlier history casts doubt on the efficacy of many of the competing proposals for improving on significance tests and p-values and for forestalling abuses. Rather than further complicate the way we now teach statistics, we should leave aside most of the 20th-century embellishments and emphasize exploratory data analysis and the idea of testing probabilities by betting against them.
发表机构
- Rutgers University（罗格斯大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
