发表机构
Banque de France; Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne（法兰西银行; 巴黎第一大学先贤祠-索邦大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本综述将菲利普斯曲线斜率与政策规则通胀响应的估计历史重构为单一识别问题，区分五种识别含义，揭示两项目因相互借用识别条件而共同失败，并探讨区间估计下的决策含义。
AI 中文摘要
两个系数几乎出现在每一个关于货币政策的定量论证中：菲利普斯曲线斜率以及政策规则对通胀的响应。七十年来，每一代估计这些系数的研究者都在其维持的假设条件下进行识别，而其后继者则放宽其中一个假设，并指出由此暴露的偏误。本综述将这两个研究项目重构为单一的识别问题。它区分了系数被称为已识别的五种含义，以该视角解读每一代曲线与规则，并表明这两个项目共同失败，因为每一个都从另一个借用其识别条件。同样的序列也出现在潜在通胀目标与最优规则上。综述最后讨论了可信设计在留下一个区间而非一个点时允许什么：界限、符号与排序，以及为区间设计的决策。
英文摘要
Two coefficients enter nearly every quantitative argument about monetary policy: the Phillips-curve slope and the policy rule's response to inflation. For seventy years, each generation that estimated them identified the coefficient conditional on assumptions it maintained, and its successor relaxed one of them, naming the bias this exposed. This survey reconstructs the two programs as a single identification problem. It distinguishes five senses in which a coefficient has been called identified, reads each generation of the curve and of the rule in that key, and shows that the programs fail together because each borrows its identifying condition from the other. The same sequence ran on the latent inflation target and on the optimal rule. The survey closes on what the credible designs license when they leave a range rather than a point: bounds, signs and orderings, and decisions designed for a range.
Comments109 pages, 5 tables. JEL: B22, C18, E31, E52, E58. Companion to arXiv:2609.31512
