发表机构
International Laboratory of Intangible-Driven Economy, HSE University（无形驱动经济国际实验室，高等经济大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究通过职业电竞规则变更数据，发现序列相关假设下缩短比赛的实际成本被高估，并提出有效试验数修正方法，量化了区分度损失。
AI 中文摘要
运筹研究通过效能（即赛制识别更强竞争者的概率）来评估锦标赛赛制，并且几乎完全在一种很少被检验的假设下通过模拟计算该效能：即赛制所聚合的试验是独立的。我们表明，这一假设系统性地高估了缩短比赛的成本，并测量了修正量。当试验存在序列相关时，赛制具有 N/[1+(N-1)rho] 个有效试验而非 N 个，因此削减百分之二十在独立假设下会损失 10.6% 的区分力，但在我们估计的相关性下仅损失 5.2%，在六十轮赛制中仅损失 2.1%。这些要素是从实际实施的比赛长度变更中估计的：2023 年 9 月，职业 Counter-Strike 将每张地图的常规回合数从三十轮削减至二十四轮。在 72,576 张地图中，我们以地图前半部分（由规则固定为十五或十二轮且无停止规则的比赛）的残差标准差上的能力斜率来衡量区分度。相对于校准基准 0.948，在变更前后的十个月窗口内，区分度下降了百分之三十五（0.648，95% 置信区间 0.52-0.81），而在整个面板上下降了百分之十（0.901，0.82-0.99）。该修正需要一个数字，可从常规结果数据中作为设计效应恢复。
英文摘要
Operational research evaluates tournament formats by their efficacy, the probability that the design identifies the stronger competitor, and computes it almost exclusively by simulation under an assumption that is rarely tested: that the trials a format aggregates are independent. We show that this assumption systematically overstates what shortening a contest costs, and we measure the correction. When trials are serially correlated, a format carries N/[1+(N-1)rho] effective trials rather than N, so a twenty per cent cut costs 10.6 per cent of discriminating power under independence but only 5.2 per cent at the correlation we estimate, and only 2.1 per cent in a sixty-trial format. The ingredients are estimated from an implemented change in contest length: in September 2023 professional Counter-Strike cut regulation rounds per map from thirty to twenty-four. Across 72,576 maps we measure discrimination as the ability slope over the residual standard deviation on the first half of a map, a contest fixed by rule at fifteen or twelve rounds with no stopping rule. Against the calibrated benchmark of 0.948, discrimination falls by thirty-five per cent in a ten-month window around the switch (0.648, 95 per cent interval 0.52-0.81) and by ten per cent over the full panel (0.901, 0.82-0.99). The correction needs one number, recoverable from ordinary results data as a design effect.
Comments37 pages, 5 figures, 8 tables
