发表机构
Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies; CLIMAFIN – Climate Finance Alpha; Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne – Paris School of Economics – CNRS-Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne（圣安娜高等研究院; CLIMAFIN – 气候金融阿尔法; 索邦大学经济中心 – 巴黎经济学院 – 法国国家科学研究中心-巴黎第一先贤祠-索邦大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究构建基于主体的货币投入产出网络模型，模拟2026-2035年气候政策情景，发现化石能源部门收缩、低碳能源扩张且网络地位不对称变化，碳定价造成部门劳动力缺口，凸显转型调整压力。
AI 中文摘要
越来越多的国家正在采取政策以减少温室气体排放，这一过程预计将通过改变相对价格以及改变各行业的生产和需求模式，重塑生产体系和劳动力市场。我们开发了一个基于主体的货币投入产出网络模型，以分析气候政策对生产网络和部门劳动力配置的中期影响。该模型以异质性的行业和家庭为特征，纳入了温室气体排放核算，并校准至覆盖世界经济的多区域投入产出数据库。我们模拟了2026年至2035年间的两种替代性气候政策情景：一种基于各国的国家自主贡献，另一种则旨在实现更大的全球减排量。结果揭示了显著的经济范围内的再配置：化石能源部门收缩，低碳能源部门扩张，且它们在生产网络中的位置发生不对称变化。化石能源作为直接供应商的相关性下降，其前向影响力减弱，而其剩余生产变得更加依赖中间投入和上游供应商；低碳能源则主要增强了其作为供应商的角色。碳定价还产生了部门性劳动力缺口，在流动性摩擦下，这意味着更大的潜在转型性失业。由于该模型仅允许在现有生产联系内进行有限的技术变革和调整，这些模拟提供了关于现有生产结构如何应对相对快速的气候转型的反事实评估，揭示了当政策雄心快于生产系统适应能力时所产生的调整压力。
英文摘要
A growing number of countries are adopting policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, a process expected to reshape production systems and labour markets by altering relative prices and changing production and demand patterns across sectors. We develop an agent-based monetary input--output network model to analyse the medium-term effects of climate policies on production networks and sectoral labour allocation. The model features heterogeneous industries and households, incorporates greenhouse-gas emissions accounting, and is calibrated to a multi-regional input--output database covering the world economy. We simulate two alternative climate-policy scenarios over 2026--2035: one based on countries' nationally determined contributions and another targeting larger reductions in global emissions. The results reveal significant economy-wide reallocation: fossil-energy sectors contract, low-carbon energy sectors expand, and their positions within production networks change asymmetrically. Fossil energy loses relevance as a direct supplier and exerts less forward influence, while its remaining production becomes more dependent on intermediate inputs and upstream suppliers; low-carbon energy primarily strengthens its role as a supplier. Carbon pricing also generates sectoral labour gaps that, under mobility frictions, imply greater potential transitional unemployment. Because the model allows only limited technological change and adjustment within existing production links, the simulations provide a counterfactual assessment of how existing production structures respond to a relatively rapid climate transition, revealing the adjustment pressures that emerge when policy ambitions advance faster than the productive system's capacity to adapt.
Comments51 pages, 12 figures
