发表机构
Virginia Tech（弗吉尼亚理工大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究提出利用激光尾场加速器产生的16 MeV光子束和有机闪烁体探测器，对卫星星座进行主动探测以核查核武器，通过路径规划和模拟验证，少量平台即可实现高概率探测。
AI 中文摘要
我们提出了一项关于空间主动探测的分析，旨在核查大型卫星星座中是否隐藏有核武器。我们提出使用先进激光尾场加速器产生的16 MeV光子束，并利用分段有机闪烁体探测裂变中子。我们以Starlink作为星座的真实示例，并针对这7,852颗卫星在5年任务期内求解检查员路径规划问题。我们对核物理和轨道物理进行了详细模拟：使用GEANT4对轨道分辨的中子和伽马背景进行信号生成与探测，使用Orekit模拟飞行路径（包括地球扁率的影响），并通过似然比检验做出探测判定。我们基于一系列检查员平台识别了不同的遭遇类型和机队设计。目标卫星所受光束辐射剂量可控制在5年空间环境剂量的约1%或以下。我们发现，少量检查平台（数量取决于加速器假设，为20-70个）即可对整个星座进行检查，对单枚部署弹头的探测概率为90%。对整个机队进行10%的随机抽样，可由2-20个平台进行检查，对5枚部署弹头的探测概率为37%。
英文摘要
We present an analysis of active interrogation in space with the goal to verify the absence of nuclear weapons hidden in a large constellation of satellites. We propose a 16 MeV photon beam generated by advanced laser wakefield accelerators and the detection of fission neutrons using segmented organic scintillators. We use Starlink as a real-world example for the constellation and solve the inspector routing problem against this set of 7,852 satellites over a 5-year mission period. We perform detailed simulation of the nuclear and orbit physics: signal generation and detection with GEANT4 against an orbit-resolved neutron and gamma background, routes flown with Orekit including the effects from the Earth's oblateness, and detection decided by a likelihood ratio test. We identify different encounter types and fleet designs based on a range of inspector platforms. The radiation dose to target satellites from the beam can be kept to about 1% or less of the 5-year space environment dose. We find that a small number of inspection platforms, 20-70 depending on the accelerator assumptions, can serve inspections to the full constellation with a detection probability of 90% against a single deployed warhead. A 10% random sample of the whole fleet can be inspected by 2-20 platforms providing a 37% detection probability against 5 deployed warheads.
Comments27 pages, 9 figures, 8 tables, comments welcome
