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何时可以信任匹配原则?有限样本和模型不确定性下的稳健部署几何

When Can We Trust the Matching Principle? Robust Deployment Geometry Under Finite-Sample and Model Uncertainty

Vishal Rajput

arXiv 2610.02894首次发表:更新:

AI 中文总结

本文提出信任比量化匹配可靠性,并设计置信校准匹配策略,实验表明在低信任时弃权优于始终匹配。

AI 中文摘要

只匹配你能识别的几何;否则分散惩罚。我们通过信任比 tau = epsilon / gamma(估计不确定性除以谱间隔)来量化该决策。在线性-二次匹配响应下,对于所选前 top-r 部署子空间中的探针,估计投影仪与预言机投影仪之间的预言机相对漂移随 tau^2 缩放——在 Davis-Kahan 分离区域 tau < 1/2 内为 O(tau^2),其实际效用取决于常数。置信校准匹配(CCM)将 tau 转化为策略——当 tau 小时为方向性,否则逐渐变为各向同性——阈值来自校准而非定理(匹配位于分离区域;软匹配主要是启发式)。实验展示了两种机制,包括 UCI HAR 嵌入,其中始终匹配在每个单元上都比弃权(不执行)更差。

英文摘要

Match only geometry you can identify; otherwise spread the penalty. We quantify that decision by the trust ratio tau = epsilon / gamma (estimation uncertainty over spectral separation). Under the linear-quadratic Matching response, oracle-relative drift between estimated and oracle projector matching scales as tau^2 for probes in the chosen top-r deployment subspace -- O(tau^2) in the Davis-Kahan separation region tau < 1/2, with practical usefulness depending on constants. Confidence-Calibrated Matching (CCM) turns tau into a policy -- directional when tau is small, progressively isotropic when not -- with thresholds from calibration, not from the theorem (match sits in the separation region; soft is mostly heuristic). Experiments show both regimes, including UCI HAR embeddings where always-match is worse than abstain on every cell.

Comments14 pages. Companion to arXiv:2604.21395 and arXiv:2605.22800

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