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共享模型、选择性交易与订单流

Shared Models, Selective Trading, and Order Flow

Victoria Ruojie Li, Arka Prava Bandyopadhyay

arXiv 2610.01897首次发表:更新:

AI 中文总结

本研究探讨在交易选择中模型多样性是否存续,通过合成市场实验发现新闻呈现方式显著改变不同语言模型家族在订单中的份额,并分析选择对价格准确性的影响。

AI 中文摘要

我们研究模型多样性是否能在交易选择中存活。在包含三个语言模型家族固定混合体的合成市场中,新闻呈现方式改变了它们在提交订单中的代表性。在公告轮次中,融资事件中Qwen的提交订单份额变动了48个百分点,而净订单数量变化不大。在裁员事件中,Mistral的份额变动了40个百分点,同时净订单数量反转了符号。同质群体在活跃决策方向一致时会消除相反方向的订单流。一项分析性分解表明,即使在总需求敏感性不变的情况下,选择也能改善或恶化价格准确性。证据涉及呈现组合和提交的订单流;更干净的复现和已知值验证被前瞻性地指定。

英文摘要

We study whether model diversity survives selection into trading. In synthetic markets with a fixed mixture of three language-model families, news presentation changes their representation among submitted orders. At the announcement round, Qwen's share of submitted orders shifts by 48 percentage points in the financing event, with little change in net order counts. In the workforce-reduction event, Mistral's share shifts by 40 percentage points while net counts reverse sign. Homogeneous populations remove opposing flow when their active decisions share a direction. An analytical decomposition shows why selection can improve or worsen price accuracy even at unchanged aggregate demand sensitivity. The evidence concerns presentation bundles and submitted flow; cleaner replication and a known-value validation are specified prospectively.

Comments44 pages, 3 figures

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