AI 中文总结
本文在合约可判定性边界上研究价格发现，提出前瞻性主要队列与试点协议，以精确时钟和交易分类解决终值缺口问题，避免事后时钟替换。
AI 中文摘要
本文研究围绕合约可判定性而非任意场所标签的价格发现。其上游生命周期和可判定性时钟在第7.1和7.3号论文中规定。历史场所端点仍是有用的背景：152,694个普通市场构成回顾性可行性分母，71,657个具有精确的公共端点，70,979个具有精确的判定到端点对。这些字段不提供合约可判定性时钟。已完成的历史恢复未产生任何历史上可接受的合约可判定性队列。前瞻性基础设施测试已通过，证据注册正在进行，但生产价格提取尚未开始。主要二元队列将从前瞻性注册且盲审的合约可判定性框架中抽取，需具有可接受的精确或区间首次可判定性时钟、精确终值、交易可用性分类，以及可接受的有界非大宗交易或真实蜡烛覆盖。可判定性后可交易的市场进入反应队列；可判定性前已关闭的市场进入陈旧终值队列。关闭是收敛的竞争事件，而非普通缺失。一个20个市场的价格试点仅在盲包锁定后且仅从可接受的前瞻性时钟候选中，才能验证获取、大宗交易处理、合成蜡烛拒绝、陈旧性和时钟对齐。它不产生价格估计。本文规定了前瞻性主要队列和有针对性的试点协议。价格估计等待独立重建的首次/稳定可判定性时钟和源发布集群。不允许进行广泛的交易所级交易爬取或事后时钟替换。
英文摘要
This paper studies price discovery around contractual decidability rather than an arbitrary venue label. Its upstream lifecycle and decidability clocks are specified in Papers 7.1 and 7.3. Historical venue endpoints remain useful background: 152,694 ordinary markets form the retrospective feasibility denominator, 71,657 have an exact public endpoint, and 70,979 have an exact determination-to-endpoint pair. Those fields do not supply a contractual-decidability clock. The completed historical recovery produced no historically admissible contractual-decidability cohort. The prospective infrastructure shakedown has passed and evidence enrollment is active, but production price extraction has not started. The primary binary cohort will be drawn from the prospectively enrolled and blind-adjudicated contractual-decidability frame, with an accepted exact or interval first-decidability clock, exact terminal payoff, trading-availability classification, and admissible bounded non-block trade or real-candle coverage. Markets tradable after decidability enter a reaction cohort; markets closed before decidability enter a stale-terminal cohort. Closure is a competing event for convergence, not ordinary missingness. A 20-market price pilot may validate acquisition, block-trade treatment, synthetic-candle rejection, staleness, and clock alignment only after blind packet lock and only from accepted prospective clock candidates. It does not create price estimates. The paper specifies a prospective primary cohort and a targeted pilot protocol. Price estimation awaits independently reconstructed first/stable-decidability clocks and source-release clusters. No broad exchange-wide trade crawl or post hoc clock substitution is permitted.
Comments12 pages, 2 figures. Also available at https://ssrn.com/abstract=7421318
