发表机构
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院喷气推进实验室）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究比较地球运送与本地制造等方案，指出在1000人定居点中本地生产可减少货运，并论证本地屏蔽与模块化旋转栖息地的必要性，认为地球支持的居住是可行路径，而独立人口延续尚需长期验证。
AI 中文摘要
建立地球之外持久的人类定居点，需要在抵达时具备可居住的目的地，并持续更新其人口与基础设施。我们比较了地球运送、机器人预先部署、当地资源加工、在耦合防护、电力、恢复和健康要求下的本地化制造。在1000名居民的情形中，特定保留时间和1%的年增长率要求每居民年约1.8吨的设备更换/扩建。本地制造将场地平均电力从11.8兆瓦提高到19.5兆瓦；在固定加工强度下，声明的保留范围给出17-26兆瓦。一个单独的100吨/年试点项目在3年调试爬坡后，将10年运送量从1000吨减少到419吨，同时保留进口投入。因此，本地生产通过增加目的地的维护能力来减少货运。接收能力受更换调整后的供应限制，而非乘客吞吐量。已发表的火星运输数据显示，对于选定的10毫西弗/年银河宇宙射线分配，每公顷约需63000吨平面覆盖；地球等效加速度在2转/分钟时需224米旋转半径。这些规模有利于本地屏蔽和模块化旋转栖息地。每35天重复发生的10天废水中断要求容量至少为流入量的1.4倍；储存无法纠正持续赤字。现有证据使终身部分重力、混合场辐射反应、妊娠、发育及后续生育力问题悬而未决。在持续投资下，可恢复栖息地、资源试点、受控重力研究是可信的10-20年目标；广泛的工业更新需要数十年的发展。地球支持的居住是一条可信的发展路径。独立的人口连续性要求在单一暴露/资源历史内展示健康、恢复、人口韧性和基本产品更新的能力；其完成尚无法确定日期。
英文摘要
Establishing a lasting human settlement beyond Earth requires a habitable destination at arrival and sustained renewal of its population/infrastructure. We compare Earth delivery, robotic predeployment, local resource processing, localized manufacture under coupled protection, power, recovery, health requirements. In a 1,000-resident case, specific retention times and 1% annual growth require ~1.8 tonnes of equipment replacement/expansion per resident-year. Local manufacture raises mean site electricity from 11.8 to 19.5 MW; the declared retention range gives 17-26 MW at fixed processing intensity. A separate 100-ton/year pilot reduces 10-year deliveries from 1,000 to 419 tonnes after a 3-year commissioning ramp, while retaining imported inputs. Local production thus reduces freight by adding maintained capacity at the destination. Receiving capacity is bounded by replacement-adjusted supply, not passenger throughput. Published Martian transport gives ~63,000 tonnes of planar cover per hectare for the selected 10-mSv/year GCR allocation; Earth-like acceleration at 2~rpm requires a 224-m rotation radius. These scales favor local shielding and modular rotating habitats. Repeated 10-day wastewater outages every 35 days require capacity at least 1.4 times inflow; storage cannot correct a persistent deficit. Existing evidence leaves lifelong partial-gravity, mixed-field radiation responses, gestation, development and subsequent fertility unresolved. With sustained investment, recoverable habitats, resource pilots, controlled-gravity investigations are credible 10-20-year objectives; broad industrial renewal requires multidecade development. Earth-supported habitation is a credible development path. Independent population continuity requires demonstrated health, recovery, demographic resilience, essential-product renewal within one exposure/resource history; its completion cannot yet be dated.
Comments57 pages, 8 figures, and 16 tables
