Kalshi 上的结果确定与结算终局性：公共状态路径、前瞻性测量与实证识别
Outcome Determination and Settlement Finality on Kalshi: Public State Paths, Prospective Measurement, and Empirical Identification
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究通过 Kalshi 注册数据实证识别事件合约结算的公共状态路径，区分端点完成度与路径完整性，发现 REST 端点覆盖广泛但路径证据有限，结果呈描述性对比。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
事件合约的结算是一个状态路径，而非一个通用时间戳。利用在 Kalshi 上注册的七天注册期和七天行政随访期，本文区分了市场对象成员资格、生命周期消息、端点状态和观察间隙。MVE 层包含在注册的半开区间内创建的 7,611,594 个代码；重建的普通股票在注册边界处有 152,694 个风险市场，3,477,227 条已终止记录，以及 11,410 条边界不确定记录。随访为 7,357,576 个 MVE 市场对象确定了精确的公共端点：其中 7,237,993 个仅通过 REST 结算时间确定，119,212 个在 WebSocket 和 REST 上一致，371 个仅通过 WebSocket；254,018 个缺乏可接受的精确端点。在普通边界队列中，71,657 个市场具有精确的 WebSocket 端点，81,037 个没有。这些是场所层面的公共终局性结果，而非成员现金观察。精确的确定到端点配对可用于 126,806 个 MVE 和 70,979 个普通代码，平均持续时间分别为 9.676 秒和 322.50 秒，观察到的最大值分别为 15 秒和 7,133 秒。这种对比是描述性的，而非因果性的。传输间隙保留了两种精确端点时钟，但阻止了相同行证明完整的中间路径或不存在修订；当前结算计时器无法绑定到历史规则版本。因此，公共端点完成度很高，尤其是在 REST 上，而路径完整性仍然较窄且具有家族特异性。精确键历史交叉引用记录了早期的临时观察，而不改变最终队列或端点事实。
英文摘要
Event-contract settlement is a state path rather than a universal timestamp. Using a registered seven-day enrollment and seven-day administrative follow-up on Kalshi, this paper distinguishes market-object membership, lifecycle messages, endpoint states, and observation gaps. The MVE layer contains 7,611,594 tickers created inside the registered half-open interval; the reconstructed ordinary stock contains 152,694 markets at risk at the enrollment boundary, 3,477,227 already terminal records, and 11,410 boundary-uncertain records. The follow-up identifies exact public endpoints for 7,357,576 MVE market objects: 7,237,993 through REST settlement time alone, 119,212 agreeing across WebSocket and REST, and 371 WebSocket-only; 254,018 lack an admissible exact endpoint. In the ordinary boundary cohort, 71,657 markets have an exact WebSocket endpoint and 81,037 do not. These are venue-level public-finality outcomes, not member-cash observations. Exact determination-to-endpoint pairs are available for 126,806 MVE and 70,979 ordinary tickers, with respective mean durations of 9.676 and 322.50 seconds and observed maxima of 15 and 7,133 seconds. The contrast is descriptive, not causal. Transport gaps preserve two exact endpoint clocks but prevent the same rows from proving complete intermediate paths or absence of revisions; current settlement timers cannot be bound to historical rule versions. Public endpoint completion is therefore extensive, especially on REST, while path completeness remains narrower and family-specific. The exact-key historical crosswalk records earlier interim observations without changing the final cohort or endpoint facts.
