玉米农田草地贪夜蛾侵染的阶段结构确定性模型
A Stage-Structured Deterministic Model of Fall Armyworm Infestation on Maize Farming
- African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Senegal（塞内加尔非洲数学科学研究所）
- Gamal Abdel Nasser University of Conakry, Guinea（几内亚科纳克里加马尔阿卜杜勒纳赛尔大学）
- University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ghana（加纳健康与联盟科学大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
AI总结：
针对草地贪夜蛾对玉米的严重威胁，构建阶段结构模型分析其动态，并通过稳定性与敏感性分析及数值模拟，证明人工摘除和化学农药等干预措施能有效抑制害虫并提升玉米产量。
AI中文摘要：
草地贪夜蛾（FAW）因其侵袭性取食习性和快速发育周期，对许多地区的玉米生产构成严重威胁。在本研究中，我们开发并分析了一个阶段结构数学模型，以评估不同草地贪夜蛾幼虫龄期在玉米营养生长和生殖阶段对玉米动态的影响。分析结果表明，这两个模型对所有时间$t\geq 0$具有唯一且有界正解，并承认四个平衡点：平凡平衡点、非平凡平衡点、玉米灭绝平衡点和共存平衡点。通过稳定性分析研究模型行为，以找出草地贪夜蛾消亡或持续传播的条件。此外，进行了敏感性分析和数值模拟，以检验关键参数如何影响草地贪夜蛾种群动态和玉米。两个阶段的模型数值模拟表明，由于产卵量增加和幼虫种群密度升高，玉米在营养生长和生殖阶段均遭受高度破坏。大量卵、幼虫和成虫蛾造成的广泛损害促使将这两个模型扩展以纳入干预措施，如传统方法（人工摘除）和化学农药。数值结果表明，这些控制策略显著抑制了草地贪夜蛾种群，并相应地在营养生长和生殖阶段使玉米植株种群数量向其最大容量增加。
英文摘要：
Fall Armyworm (FAW) poses a serious threat to maize production in many regions due to its aggressive feeding habits and rapid development cycle. In this study, we developed and analyzed a stage-structured mathematical model to evaluate the impact of different FAW larval instars on maize dynamics during the vegetative and reproductive stages. Analytical results indicate that the two models have unique and positively bounded solutions for all time $t\geq 0$ and admit four equilibrium points: the trivial, non-trivial, maize extinction and coexistence equilibria. The behavior of the model was studied using stability analysis to find conditions under which FAW dies out or continues to spread. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were conducted to examine how key parameters affect FAW population dynamics and maize. Numerical simulations of the model in both stages indicate that there is high destruction of maize plants in both vegetative and reproductive stages of maize production due to increased egg production and larval population density. The extensive damage caused by large populations of eggs, larvae and adult moths motivated an extension of the two models to include intervention measures such as traditional methods like handpicking and chemical pesticides. Numerical results indicate that these control strategies significantly suppressed the FAW population with a resultant increase in the maize plant population towards its maximum capacity during the vegetative and reproductive stages, respectively.
