货币-产出关系的网络起源

中文摘要 AI 辅助

本文构建了一个动态生产网络模型，在该模型中，即使价格完全灵活，货币非中性也会出现。企业用当前名义余额购买中间投入品，而中间品从不同供应商处到达的提前期各不相同。货币冲击因此产生两种不同的效应。第一种是协调失灵：由于生产使用在过去的名义条件下组装的带日期投入束，冲击扰乱了可用投入的构成（在企业内部及企业之间），从而产生无谓损失。第二种是重新配置：由于冲击的影响偏向于较小的企业，而这些企业不成比例地处于下游，冲击沿供应链重新分配资源。更具体地说，正向冲击将资源推向下游，负向冲击将资源拉向上游。这意味着在负向冲击下，协调失灵和重新配置效应都会减少下游产出，从而降低GDP。在正向冲击下，重新配置提高GDP，而协调失灵则降低GDP。因此，货币-产出关系具有符号不对称性：负向冲击导致急剧收缩，而正向冲击最多带来温和扩张，有时甚至没有扩张。在重建的美国生产网络上进行的计算实验显示，货币紧缩后的产出下降幅度约为货币扩张后产出上升幅度的三倍。

英文摘要

This paper develops a dynamic production-network model in which monetary non-neutrality emerges under fully flexible prices. Firms finance intermediate-input purchases from current nominal balances, and intermediate goods arrive with heterogeneous lead times across suppliers. A monetary shock then has two distinct effects. The first is miscoordination: because production uses dated input bundles assembled under past nominal conditions, the shock disturbs the composition of usable inputs (within and across firms) and thereby generates a deadweight loss. The second is reallocation: because the incidence of the shock is tilted toward smaller firms, which are disproportionately downstream, the shock redistributes resources along the supply chain. More specifically, positive shocks push resources downstream, negative shocks pull them upstream. This means that under a negative shock, both the miscoordination and the reallocation effect reduce downstream output and therefore GDP. Under a positive shock, reallocation raises GDP while miscoordination reduces it. The money-output relation is therefore sign-asymmetric: negative shocks generate sharp contractions, while positive shocks generate at most mild expansions, and sometimes none. Computational experiments on a reconstructed US production network generate output declines after a monetary contraction that are about three times as large as the increases after a monetary expansion.

发表机构

• Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode（印度科泽科德管理学院）

机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。