发表机构
College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University; Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam; Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research（南洋理工大学计算与数据科学学院; 阿姆斯特丹大学信息学研究所; 新加坡科技研究局高性能计算研究所）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究提出耦合活动尺度接触与城市通勤网络的多尺度模拟框架，以马德里为例，发现大规模聚集放大并加速疫情传播，而活动后传播条件可补充预测入侵时间，缓解聚集期传播可带来下游公共卫生效益。
AI 中文摘要
音乐会、体育比赛和节日庆典等大规模聚集活动会在短时间内使大量人群密切接触，造成局部感染暴发，进而可能影响整个城市的流行病结局。为评估这些短暂传播事件如何转化为更广泛的城市影响，我们开发了一个将活动尺度接触动态与城市通勤网络相连接的模拟模型。以西班牙马德里为案例，我们比较了多种类型的聚集活动，并考察了在不同疾病传播水平下其影响的变化。我们发现，大规模聚集活动持续放大疫情暴发规模、加速疫情进展、提前区域级到达时间，并使空间传播同步化。值得注意的是，虽然活动产生的初始种子规模在很大程度上解释了这种加速效应，但活动后传播条件为入侵时间提供了补充性的预测信号。这些发现表明，在大规模聚集期间缓解传播可通过延迟更广泛的空间传播带来下游公共卫生效益。更广泛而言，这一多尺度框架为评估临时性、局部性接触变化如何对城市人群产生更持久后果提供了工具。
英文摘要
Mass gathering events like concerts, sports matches, and festivals bring many people into close contact within a short period, creating localized bursts of infection that can shape epidemic outcomes across an entire city. To evaluate how these transient transmission events translate into broader urban impacts, we developed a simulation model linking event-scale contact dynamics with citywide commuting networks. Using Madrid, Spain, as a case study, we compared several types of gatherings and examined how their effects changed under different levels of disease transmissibility. We found that mass gatherings consistently amplified outbreak magnitude, accelerated progression, advanced district-level arrival times, and synchronized spatial spread. Remarkably, while the initial seed size generated at the event accounted for much of this acceleration, post-event transmission conditions provided complementary predictive signal regarding invasion timing. These findings demonstrate that mitigating transmission during mass gatherings can yield downstream public health benefits by delaying broader spatial spread. More generally, this multiscale framework offers a tool to evaluate how temporary, localized contact shifts produce longer-lasting consequences for urban populations.
Comments40 pages, 19 figures, 5 tables
