发表机构
Hertie School; Neon Neue Energieökonomik（赫尔蒂学院; Neon 新能源经济学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本文指出现有研究高估同步家用电池的局部负荷峰值，因忽视价格反馈；通过德国数据模拟，内生价格下峰值比外生价格低近一半，风险远小于文献所述。
AI 中文摘要
现有研究一致发现，针对实时电价进行优化的家用电池和电动汽车会在本地配电网中产生新的负荷峰值，因为所有资产都对相同的价格信号做出同步响应。然而，本文回顾的18项研究中，除一项外，均将批发价格视为外生变量。本文认为，将价格视为无响应会偏倚结果：实际上，在低电价时段充电会推高批发价格，从而抑制充电激励。我通过模拟在基于现货的零售电价下配备屋顶光伏和家用电池的家庭，并依据2025年德国数据及均衡批发价格模型进行校准，对此进行检验。在外生价格下，我的结果证实了先前文献的发现：同步充电使本地电网的同时输入峰值比无电池水平高出83%。在内生价格下，同一车队使峰值比无电池基准低6%。换言之，将价格视为内生变量可使高电池渗透率下的同时峰值降低近一半。这一发现在不同的价格函数和外生价格路径、不同的同时峰值衡量方式、25种情景变化以及三个历史年份中均保持稳健。我得出结论，新的局部峰值仍可能出现，尤其是在电池部署速度超过全国平均水平的电网中，但风险及其程度远小于现有文献所暗示的。
英文摘要
Existing studies consistently find that home batteries and electric vehicles optimized against real-time electricity prices create new load peaks in local distribution grids, because all assets respond to the same price signal in sync. However, all but one of the 18 studies reviewed here treat wholesale prices as exogenous. This paper argues that treating prices as non-responsive biases the result: in reality, charging in low-price hours raises the wholesale price, which dampens the incentive to charge. I test this by simulating households with rooftop solar and home batteries under a spot-based retail tariff, calibrated to German data for 2025 with a model of equilibrium wholesale prices. With exogenous prices, my results confirm the finding from the previous literature: synchronous charging pushes the coincident import peak of the local grid to 83% above its no-battery level. With endogenous prices, the same fleet leaves the peak 6% below the no-battery benchmark. In other words, treating prices as endogenous reduces the coincident peak at high battery penetration nearly by half. This finding is robust across alternative price functions and exogenous price paths, different measures of the coincident peak, 25 scenario variations and three historical years. I conclude that new local peaks remain possible, particularly in grids where battery deployment runs ahead of the national average, but the risk and magnitude are considerably smaller than the existing literature suggests.
