CEO Arena：评估竞争市场中的长周期多智能体决策
CEO Arena: Evaluating Long-Horizon Multi-Agent Decision-Making in Competitive Markets
- DeepWisdom
- Fudan University（复旦大学）
- The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）
- The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））
- The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)（香港科技大学（广州））
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
AI总结：
本研究提出CEO Arena基准，通过匹配替换评估法在8公司500日模拟市场中测试LLM基CEO智能体的长周期竞争决策，发现多数智能体平均收益为负，为智能体竞争与市场外部性研究提供可控平台。
AI中文摘要：
长周期竞争考验智能体在不确定性下协调商业决策、适应不断变化的竞争对手策略的能力。我们提出CEO Arena基准，该基准采用匹配替换评估方法，在评估运营收益的同时，衡量智能体对竞争对手及市场的影响。每个CEO智能体都会与同一公司、相同经济随机种子下的参考策略进行对比，在所有智能体均自适应调整的前提下，保持其他智能体的身份与任务分配固定。在一个包含8家公司、持续500个模拟日的共享市场中，CEO们需在资源约束与反馈延迟的条件下，利用公司私有信息和带噪声的市场信号，就定价、采购、营销、研发及服务做出序列决策。我们在27组主实验和26组鲁棒性实验中评估了8个基于大语言模型（LLM）的CEO智能体。主评估结果显示，多数智能体的平均收益为负，且私人收益可能伴随市场整体损失。鲁棒性分析表明，整体模式不局限于最初的基于规则的基线；56组定向对比中有4组表现出相对稳定的效应。记忆、行动与账目追踪数据显示，需求抢占以及竞争对手的定价与支出响应可能是背后的原因。CEO Arena为研究长周期智能体竞争、策略互动与市场外部性提供了一个可控测试平台。
英文摘要：
Long-horizon competition tests agents' ability to coordinate business decisions under uncertainty and adapt to changing rival strategies. We introduce CEO Arena, a benchmark that uses matched replacement evaluation to assess operating returns alongside an agent's effects on rivals and the market. Each CEO agent is compared with a reference policy in the same company under the same economic seed, holding other agents' identities and assignments fixed while all agents adapt. In a shared eight-company market spanning 500 simulated days, CEOs make sequential decisions on pricing, procurement, marketing, research and development, and service using private company information and noisy market signals, under resource constraints and delayed feedback. We evaluate eight LLM-based CEO agents in 27 main runs and 26 robustness runs. In the main evaluation, most agents have negative mean returns, and private gains can accompany market losses. Robustness analyses suggest that aggregate patterns extend beyond the original rule-based baseline; four of the 56 directed pairs show relatively stable effects. Memory, action, and accounting traces suggest demand capture and rivals' pricing and spending responses as possible explanations. CEO Arena provides a controlled testbed for studying long-horizon agent competition, strategic interaction, and market externalities.
