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arXiv 2609.34226physics.ao-ph

低延迟全球碳收支揭示2025年陆地碳汇强劲恢复

Low latency global carbon budget reveals strong land sink recovery in 2025

发表机构气候与环境科学实验室,巴黎萨克雷大学 · 中国科学院青藏高原研究所 · 埃克塞特大学
另 12 家 · 查看机构详情
  • Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, University Paris Saclay CEA CNRS(气候与环境科学实验室,巴黎萨克雷大学)
  • Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences(中国科学院青藏高原研究所)
  • University of Exeter(埃克塞特大学)
  • Tsinghua University(清华大学)
  • Microsoft research(微软研究院)
  • Spark Climate Solutions(Spark气候解决方案)
  • Wageningen University(瓦赫宁根大学)
  • The University of Hong Kong(香港大学)
  • Peking University(北京大学)
  • California Institute of Technology(加州理工学院)
  • Colorado State University(科罗拉多州立大学)
  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Monitoring Laboratory(美国国家海洋和大气管理局全球监测实验室)
  • University of Colorado Boulder(科罗拉多大学博尔德分校)
  • Sorbonne Université(索邦大学)
  • Seoul National University(首尔大学)

机构由 AI 辅助整理,请以论文原文为准。

Philippe Ciais, Piyu Ke, Xiangjun Tian, Stephen Sitch, Wei Li, Xiaomeng Du, Xiaofan Gui, Ben Poulter, Thomas Colligan, Auke M. van der Woude, Anne-Wil van den B… 展开作者

Philippe Ciais, Piyu Ke, Xiangjun Tian, Stephen Sitch, Wei Li, Xiaomeng Du, Xiaofan Gui, Ben Poulter, Thomas Colligan, Auke M. van der Woude, Anne-Wil van den Berg, Wouter Peters, Zhu Liu, Zhu Deng, Zhe Jin, Yilong Wang, Junjie Liu, Sudhanshu Pandey, Chris O'Dell, Jiang Bian, John Miller, Xin Lan, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, Michael O'Sullivan, Pierre Friedlingstein, Youngryel Ryu, Helin Zhang, Julien Alléon, Yi Xi, Daniel S. Goll, Lei Zhu, Guido R. van der Werf, Yitong Yao, Shilong Piao, Frédéric Chevallier

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中文总结 AI 辅助

基于低延迟全球碳收支,发现2025年陆地碳汇强劲恢复,抵消了化石燃料排放增长,使大气CO2增长率显著下降,但恢复存在空间不均。

中文摘要 AI 辅助

2025年大气CO2增长率急剧下降,从2024年创纪录的3.76±0.09 ppm yr-1降至2.06±0.09 ppm yr-1(NOAA海洋边界层观测),低于2015-2022年平均水平2.47 ppm yr-1,尽管化石燃料CO2排放量上升了0.7%,达到10.38 GtC yr-1。本文提出了2025年低延迟全球和区域碳收支,结合了三个动态全球植被模型(DGVMs)和海洋模型模拟器,以及由OCO-2卫星反演约束的四个大气反演模型。2025年全球净陆地碳汇达到2.36±0.16 GtC yr-1(DGVMs:2.04±0.24;反演:2.68±0.20 GtC yr-1),较2024年增强了2.81±0.31 GtC yr-1,并超过2015-2022年平均水平0.71±0.13 GtC yr-1。海洋吸收(3.11±0.36 GtC yr-1)与2024年基本持平,使得陆地碳汇的反弹成为CO2增长放缓的主要驱动因素。热带陆地由2024年的净排放源转变为2025年的净碳汇,非洲大部分地区和欧亚大陆北部吸收增强,陆地通量异常与GRACE陆地水储量协同变化。在2023-2024年碳汇显著减弱的区域,约80%的面积显示出一定程度的恢复,总体恢复幅度为87.3%(DGVMs)至99.5%(反演)。热带地区恢复超过100%,但北半球中高纬度地区恢复不完全,表明陆地碳汇出现了强劲但空间不均的反弹。

英文摘要

The atmospheric CO2 growth rate fell sharply in 2025, from a record 3.76 $\pm$ 0.09 ppm yr-1 in 2024 to 2.06 $\pm$ 0.09 ppm yr-1 (NOAA marine boundary layer observations), below the 2015-2022 mean of 2.47 ppm yr-1, even as fossil CO2 emissions rose by 0.7% to 10.38 GtC yr-1. Here we present a low-latency global and regional carbon budget for 2025, combining three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and ocean model emulators with four atmospheric inversions constrained by OCO-2 satellite retrievals. The global net land sink reached 2.36 $\pm$ 0.16 GtC yr-1 in 2025 (DGVMs: 2.04 $\pm$ 0.24; inversions: 2.68 $\pm$ 0.20 GtC yr-1), strengthening by 2.81 $\pm$ 0.31 GtC yr-1 from 2024 and exceeding the 2015-2022 mean by 0.71 $\pm$ 0.13 GtC yr-1. Ocean uptake (3.11 $\pm$ 0.36 GtC yr-1) remained similar to 2024, making the land sink rebound the dominant driver of the slowdown in CO2 growth. Tropical lands shifted from net sources in 2024 to net sinks in 2025, with enhanced uptake across much of Africa and northern Eurasia, and land flux anomalies covaried with GRACE terrestrial water storage. Where the sink had weakened substantially in 2023-2024, about 80% of the area showed some recovery, with overall recovery of 87.3% (DGVMs) to 99.5% (inversions). Recovery exceeded 100% in the tropics but remained incomplete in the northern extratropics, indicating a strong but spatially uneven rebound of the land carbon sink.

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