多区域稳定人口中的迁移谱系：首次返回分解、递归与敏感性
Migration Genealogies in Multiregional Stable Populations: First-Return Decompositions, Recurrence, and Sensitivity
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- National Institute of Population and Social Security Research（国立社会保障·人口问题研究所）
- Kushiro college, National Institute of Technology（国立工业短大带广学院）
- National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University（国立阳明交通大学）
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究提出迁移谱系的首次返回分解方法，用于量化多区域稳定人口中生殖路径的递归强度，并应用于日本47个都道府县，揭示区域人口更替差异。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
当育龄人群在区域间迁移时，更替水平生育率并不必然产生空间上平衡的人口更替。迁移谱系通过生存与移动，将一名女性的出生区域与其女儿们跨代的出生区域联系起来。我们将稳定出生和生殖价值的现有谱系序列分解为首次返回路径，在这些路径上，一个谱系在其参考区域内再次产生后代，而中间在该区域无出生。以内在增长率进行贴现，得到具有Euler-Lotka型归一化的首次返回分布。其平均递归世代，即首次返回的预期世代数，等于稳定出生与生殖价值的归一化乘积，并且在更替水平下，等于区域内生殖的净繁殖率倒数的敏感性。利用日本2010年、2015年和2020年的人口普查、生命统计和生命表，我们在全国更替水平下比较了47个都道府县。基于2020年的比率，东京的平均递归约为10代，秋田约为500代；福岛在不同观测年份间有所变化。相似的单代出生贡献掩盖了不同的后代目的地和随后的返回路径。这些基于时期的结果揭示了生殖路径如何在静止人口中产生区域差异。因此，人口更替必须通过生育率、迁移和区域条件联合分析，平均递归识别了封闭生殖路径的强度。
英文摘要
When people of reproductive age move between regions, replacement-level fertility need not produce spatially balanced population replacement. Migration genealogies connect a woman's birth region, through survival and movement, to her daughters' birth regions across generations. We decompose existing genealogical series for stable births and reproductive value into first-return paths, on which a lineage again produces a descendant in its reference region without intermediate births there. Discounting at the intrinsic growth rate yields a first-return distribution with an Euler--Lotka-type normalization. Its mean recurrence generation, the expected generations until first return, equals the normalized product of stable births and reproductive value and, at replacement, reciprocal net reproduction sensitivity to within-region reproduction. Using Japan's 2010, 2015, and 2020 censuses, vital statistics, and life tables, we compare 47 prefectures under national replacement. Based on 2020 rates, mean recurrence is approximately 10 generations for Tokyo and 500 for Akita; Fukushima varies across observation years. Similar one-generation birth contributions conceal different descendant destinations and subsequent return pathways. These period-based results reveal how reproductive pathways generate regional differences in stationary populations. Population replacement must therefore be analyzed jointly through fertility, migration, and regional conditions, with mean recurrence identifying the strength of closed reproductive pathways.
