一种基于投影的贝叶斯年龄估计方法：在层序约束下
A Projection-Based Approach to Bayesian Age Estimation under Stratigraphic Constraints
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中文总结 AI 辅助
针对层序约束贝叶斯定年中持续时间膨胀问题，提出基于投影的无约束后验方法，通过等渗回归计算Wasserstein最近约束分布，显著降低偏差并提升精度。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
在考古学年代构建中，由发掘背景产生的层序约束通常通过有序约束先验纳入贝叶斯模型。然而，这些模型存在已被充分记录的缺陷：估计的持续时间被夸大，且随着更多样本被定年，偏差会加剧。首先，我们证明这一现象是先验固有的：当所有真实年龄相同时，后验持续时间收敛到先验支撑的宽度。接着，我们提出一个不包含层序知识的无约束后验，并将其投影到由层序顺序诱导的空间上。投影后的后验是Wasserstein距离上最接近的约束分布；它可通过在有向无环图上的等渗回归计算，并纠正了持续时间膨胀，这与约束先验不同。模拟研究和两个考古案例研究展示了显著的偏差减少和精度提升。
英文摘要
In archaeological chronology building, stratigraphic constraints arising from the excavation context are commonly incorporated into Bayesian models through order-constrained priors. However, these models suffer from well-documented artifacts: estimated durations are inflated, and the bias worsens as more samples are dated. First, we prove that this phenomenon is intrinsic to the prior: when all true ages coincide, the posterior duration converges to the prior support's width. We then propose an unconstrained posterior that does not include stratigraphic knowledge and project it onto the space induced by the stratigraphic order. The projected posterior is the Wasserstein-closest constrained distribution; it can be computed via isotonic regression on a directed acyclic graph and corrects duration inflation unlike constrained priors. Simulation studies and two archaeological case studies demonstrate substantial bias reduction and precision gains.
发表机构
- Nantes Université - CNRS（南特大学）
- Univ Rennes - CNRS（雷恩大学）
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