发表机构
Pusan National University（釜山国立大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究使用ARIMA模型和相关性分析，发现中东国家冲突活动存在可测量的线性时间结构，短期持续性约2-6天，且与人均GDP负相关。
AI 中文摘要
中东国家的冲突事件表现出复杂的时间波动。作为一个简单的基线，我们使用自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）框架检验其冲突频率时间序列是否包含可测量的线性时间结构，该框架假设对过去观测值和误差存在线性依赖。尽管这一线性假设简单，但ARIMA在很大程度上捕捉了大多数国家的时间依赖性。基于所选ARIMA模型的预测在一定程度上再现了整体时间行为，尽管突变仍然难以预测。我们进一步使用首次过零点$k^*$（表征初始正时间相关性的持续时间）和积分相关时间$\tau_{\mathrm{int}}$（额外反映其强度和衰减）来检验冲突活动变化的短期持续性。所得的$k^*$值约为2至6天，而$\tau_{\mathrm{int}}$的范围约为0.6至1.7天。$\tau_{\mathrm{int}}$与人均GDP平均值的显著负相关表明，短期冲突持续性与更广泛的社会经济条件之间可能存在关联。这些结果揭示了中东地区冲突活动时间模式中可测量的线性时间结构和国家依赖的短期持续性。
英文摘要
Conflict events in Middle Eastern countries exhibit complex temporal fluctuations. As a simple baseline, we examine whether their conflict-frequency time series contain measurable linear temporal structure using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) framework, which assumes linear dependence on past observations and errors. Despite this simple linear assumption, the temporal dependence is largely captured for most countries by ARIMA. Predictions based on the selected ARIMA models reproduce the overall temporal behavior to some extent, although abrupt changes remain difficult to predict. We further examine the short-term persistence of changes in conflict activity using the first zero-crossing point $k^*$, which characterizes the duration of the initial positive temporal correlation, and the integrated correlation time $τ_{\mathrm{int}}$, which additionally reflects its strength and decay. The resulting $k^*$ values are approximately 2--6 days, while $τ_{\mathrm{int}}$ ranges from approximately 0.6 to 1.7 days. The significant negative association of $τ_{\mathrm{int}}$ with mean GDP per capita suggests a possible relation between short-term conflict persistence and broader socioeconomic conditions. These results reveal measurable linear temporal structure and country-dependent short-term persistence in the temporal patterns of conflict activity across the Middle East.
Comments11 pages, 8 figures
