发表机构
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA); Eastern University（巴西亚马逊国家研究所; 东方大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究基于15个月野外数据，发现澳大利亚蚂蚁工蚁死亡同步性普遍存在（平均ICC=0.21），但与体型无关，温度仅部分相关，物种热耐受性可能是关键解释因素。
AI 中文摘要
群体人口统计模型通常将工蚁死亡视为独立事件，但共同的环境暴露可能在物种内部同步化死亡率。利用包含18种澳大利亚蚂蚁和106个队列的15个月野外数据集，我们通过组内相关系数（ICC）量化了种内死亡同步性，并检验了体型和温度作为候选相关因素。同步性普遍存在：18个物种中有9个的可信区间排除零，组合平均ICC为0.21±0.09，表明每日死亡率方差中约21%反映了物种内部共享暴露的影响。体型并未缓冲同步性。工蚁体重与ICC无关（Spearman rho = +0.10，p = 0.69；WLS beta = +0.05，p = 0.35），将工蚁的寿命长短与死亡时机解耦。温度显示出提示性的滞后关联：在15个可分析物种中，有13个物种的最高温度先于死亡脉冲1-7天，平均峰值r = 0.16，但没有任何物种通过Bonferroni校正。一项敏感性分析使用滞后1-7天的平均相关性而非峰值，消除了组合层面的信号（平均r = -0.03，p = 0.93），且ICC与温度耦合强度无关（Spearman rho = -0.004，p = 0.99）。因此，死亡同步性普遍存在、与体型无关，且仅部分受温度影响。物种特有的热耐受性，而非体重，是解释同步死亡变异性的更有前景的候选因素。
英文摘要
Colony demographic models often treat worker deaths as independent events, but shared environmental exposure may synchronize mortality within species. Using a 15-month field dataset of 18 Australian ant species and 106 cohorts, we quantified intra-specific mortality synchrony with the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and tested body size and temperature as candidate correlates. Synchrony was widespread: credible intervals excluded zero in 9 of 18 species, and the assemblage mean ICC was 0.21 +/- 0.09, indicating that about 21% of daily mortality variance reflected shared within-species exposure. Body size did not buffer synchrony. Worker mass was unrelated to ICC (Spearman rho = +0.10, p = 0.69; WLS beta = +0.05, p = 0.35), decoupling how long workers live from when they die together. Temperature showed a suggestive lagged association: maximum temperature preceded mortality pulses by 1-7 days in 13 of 15 analyzable species, with mean peak r = 0.16, but no species survived Bonferroni correction. A sensitivity analysis using mean correlation across lags 1-7 days instead of the peak removed the assemblage-level signal (mean r = -0.03, p = 0.93), and ICC was unrelated to temperature-coupling strength (Spearman rho = -0.004, p = 0.99). Mortality synchrony is therefore widespread, size-independent, and only partly thermal. Species-specific thermal tolerance, rather than body mass, is a more promising candidate for explaining variation in synchronized mortality.
Comments5 figures, 6 main-text tables
