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扩展 $\ell_1$-和 $\phi$-混合系数的强相合估计:基于单条轨迹

Strongly Consistent Estimation of the Extended $\ell_1$-Sum of $ϕ$-Mixing Coefficients from a Single Trajectory

Senhan Yao

arXiv 2609.26232首次发表:更新:

AI 中文总结

针对单条轨迹下 $\phi$-混合系数扩展和的可估计性问题,构造了几乎必然收敛的确定性统计量,无需混合速率假设,并覆盖无穷和情形。

AI 中文摘要

Khaleghi 和 Lugosi 曾提出如下问题:对于一个实值离散时间平稳遍历过程,其 $\phi$-混合(一致混合)系数之和能否基于单条样本路径进行相合估计?我们构造了一个确定性的 Borel 统计量序列,使得对每个这样的过程,该序列几乎必然收敛到扩展和 $\sum_{m\geq1}\phi(m)$,包括当和为无穷时发散到 $+\infty$ 的情形。该估计器结合了有限二元柱(dyadic cylinders)与一个基于条件事件频率的趋于零的经验截断。当目标为有限时,$\alpha(m)\leq\phi(m)$ 为不断增长的有限类提供了可求和的自协方差控制,而稳定划分估计给出了上界。固定正概率见证与 Birkhoff 定理给出了下界,包括无穷目标的情形。该方法不要求任何混合速率或条件事件概率的已知正下界。

英文摘要

Khaleghi and Lugosi asked whether the sum of the $ϕ$-mixing (uniform-mixing) coefficients of a real-valued discrete-time stationary ergodic process can be consistently estimated from a single sample path. We construct a deterministic sequence of Borel statistics that, for every such process, converges almost surely to the extended sum $\sum_{m\geq1}ϕ(m)$, including divergence to $+\infty$ when the sum is infinite. The estimator combines finite dyadic cylinders with a vanishing empirical cutoff on conditioning-event frequencies. When the target is finite, $α(m)\leqϕ(m)$ supplies summable covariance control for the growing finite classes, and a stable-division estimate yields the upper bound. Fixed positive-probability witnesses and Birkhoff's theorem give the lower bound, including the infinite-target case. No mixing rate or known positive lower bound on conditioning-event probabilities is required.

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