发表机构
Aegis Compliance and Strategies OÜ（Aegis合规与策略有限公司）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本文研究AI进步下专业服务提供商的能力信号传递，提出责任承诺与承保人监控机制，证明盲目承保导致容量幻觉，而监控可将容量转化为可信度并维持分离均衡。
AI 中文摘要
当生成式AI使交付物不再具有信息量时，专业服务提供商仍能认证的是其保留的、能够发现机器错误的人类能力，而认证工具则是一种责任承诺，其预期成本随该能力而变化。该承诺的信用度仅以提供商能够承担的上限为限，在实践中，这一上限由承保人提供。我们将承保人设定为战略性的第三方行动者，由其选择承担多少承诺以及以何种精度监控被保险人的参与政策。两个对象支配一切：信息保留度ψ=r+(1+λ)(1-r)m，即承诺预期成本中随提供商类型变化的部分；以及集合负担ξ=(1+λ)(1-r)(1-m)，即不随类型变化的部分。单交叉性质仅在ψ>0时成立：来自盲目承保人的全额保险会彻底破坏分离均衡。我们证明了一个容量幻觉结果：分离均衡下可承保的最大票据规模与Ĉ=ψL̄成正比，且在保留率r*=W/(W+K)处取得最大值max_r Ĉ=W+(1+λ)mK，该保留率与m无关。在盲目承保人情形下，该最大值恰好等于提供商自身的资本W：第三方容量在信息上毫无价值，无论其规模多大。监控以线性速率将容量转化为可信度。只有当承保人是盲目时，保险才会侵蚀其所承保的兜底存量：在m=0时，参与放弃阈值相对于未保险值偏移43%，在m=1时偏移1.0%。由于监控型承保人部分揭示了承诺本欲传递的信号，当承保信息被披露时，面向客户的认证需求在监控精度上呈驼峰形。一个具有审查验证记录的随机市场证实，激励相容性在噪声信念下仍然成立，偏离真实报告的速率以n^{-1/2}下降。
英文摘要
When generative AI makes the deliverable uninformative, a professional-services provider can still certify the preserved human capability to catch the machine's errors, through a liability pledge whose expected cost falls in that capability. The pledge is credible only up to what can be collected, and that ceiling is set by an underwriter, which bears part of the pledge and audits the insured. The range of client stakes over which one certificate separates has a width bounded by the provider's own capital plus the audited share of the underwriter's capacity, so unmonitored capacity adds nothing to it. Blind capital instead relocates that range upward, through a cross-subsidy that exists only under class rating. Monitoring converts capital into width, removes the cross-subsidy, raises the return to preserving skill, and, because audit information leaks, makes the certificate redundant beyond an interior precision.
Comments43 pages, 10 figures. v2 replaces the equilibrium construction of v1 (see Appendix B) and carries a new title. Builds on four companion papers by the author (arXiv:2607.26327, published in Games 17(5):49; arXiv:2608.04276; arXiv:2608.05969; arXiv:2609.26141). Replication package: doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.33193704. JEL: D82, D86, G22, K13, L15
