基于贝叶斯优化框架的城市冠层模型热缓解权衡分析

中文摘要 AI 辅助

为缓解气候变化挑战和城市地区日益加剧的热应激，世界各地城市正在讨论并引入局部适应策略。为理解这些策略的过程和潜在权衡，采用贝叶斯优化和代理建模框架来研究热缓解策略的城市参数范围，重点关注三个热指标：白天空气温度、通用热气候指数（UTCI）和夜间空气温度。基于城市街道峡谷配置，研究表明，降低白天空气温度和UTCI的热缓解措施通常与较高的夜间温度相关。这导致了一个弯曲的帕累托前沿，反映了白天和夜间热舒适之间的权衡。在相同强迫条件下，不同的城市配置（在几何、植被和地表特征方面有所不同）被证明可将峡谷峰值空气温度在白天改变高达5.2°C，在夜间改变高达2.6°C，而UTCI变化高达7.9°C，表明有利的城市配置可以显著缓解微气候热应激。这些发现表明，结合多目标贝叶斯优化和代理建模有助于弥合计算密集型气候模拟与城市规划中实际决策之间的差距。开发了一个交互式可视化工具来探索这些权衡，使规划者可以直接访问城市参数与三个热指标之间通常对立的关系。

英文摘要

To mitigate the challenges of climate change and intensifying heat stress in urban areas, local adaptation strategies are discussed and introduced in cities worldwide. To understand processes and potential trade-offs of these strategies a Bayesian optimization and surrogate modeling framework was employed to investigate urban parameter ranges of heat mitigation strategies with focus on three thermal metrics: daytime air temperature, Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), and nighttime air temperature. Based on an urban street canyon configuration, it was shown that heat mitigation measures that reduce daytime air temperature and UTCI are often associated with higher nighttime temperatures. This results in a curved Pareto front that reflects the trade-off between daytime and nighttime thermal comfort. Under identical forcing conditions, different urban configurations, varying in geometry, vegetation, and surface characteristics, are shown to alter peak canyon air temperature by up to 5.2~$^\circ$C during the day and 2.6~$^\circ$C at night, while UTCI varies by up to 7.9~$^\circ$C, demonstrating that favorable urban configurations can substantially mitigate microclimatic heat stress. These findings suggest that combining multi-objective Bayesian optimization and surrogate modeling can help bridge the gap between computationally intensive climate simulations and practical decision-making in urban planning. An interactive visualization tool was developed to explore these trade-offs, making the often opposing relationships between urban parameters and the three thermal metrics directly accessible to planners.

发表机构

• Technische Universität Braunschweig（布伦瑞克工业大学）

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