发表机构
World Bank（世界银行）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本文针对天空中异常物体，提出从观测轨迹辨识其动力学类别（惰性、脉冲强迫或主动稳定）的问题，并建立三类模型可辨识唯一性的条件，指出不同机制虽可产生相似平均轨迹，但随机响应差异可唯一确定类别。
AI 中文摘要
天空中一个不寻常的物体引发了两个相关问题：它是什么类型的物体，以及何种物理过程驱动其运动。偏离仅受引力作用的轨迹可以提供证据，但相同的表观加速度可能由不同的动力学机制产生。我们将此表述为一个辨识问题，并在三类参考模型——惰性动力学、脉冲强迫以及主动稳定（如受控航天器）——之间建立可辨识唯一性的条件。其区别在于各类模型对扰动的响应方式。尽管不同机制可能产生相似的平均轨迹，但指定的参考模型意味着这些轨迹周围存在不同的随机响应。我们展示了在何种情况下这些差异能从观测轨迹中唯一确定动力学类别，以及在何种情况下多个类别仍与观测相容。
英文摘要
An unusual object in the sky raises two related questions: what kind of object it is and what physical process drives its motion. Departures from a gravity-only trajectory can provide evidence, but the same apparent acceleration may be generated by distinct dynamical mechanisms. We formulate this as an identification problem and establish conditions for identifiable uniqueness among three reference classes: inert dynamics, impulsive forcing, and active stabilization such as a controlled spacecraft. The distinction rests on how each class responds to disturbances. Although different mechanisms can produce similar average trajectories, the specified reference models imply different stochastic responses around those trajectories. We show when these differences uniquely determine the dynamical class from the observed trajectory and when several classes remain observationally compatible.
Comments62 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables, proofs
