从语调到轨迹：连续情感与货币政策沟通的形态
From Tone to Trajectory: Continuous Sentiment and the Shape of Monetary Policy Communication
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究通过构建欧洲央行和美联储新闻发布会的连续情感弧线，发现情感序列和强调的形态能稳健预测利率决策及预测者行为，表明沟通设计是政策信号的一阶特征。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
中央银行新闻发布会不仅仅是信息发布——它们是结构化的叙事。我们研究声明中情感的形态（而不仅仅是其平均语调）是否携带与政策相关的信号。我们沿着三个维度——货币立场、经济前景和不确定性——构建了欧洲央行和美联储新闻发布会的“情感弧线”，并评估了它们对政策利率变化、通胀预期和预测者分歧的预测内容。我们的研究结果表明，在两家机构中，弧线形态稳健地预测了超越基于词典基准的利率决策——这不仅仅是声明平均听起来鹰派或经济乐观，而是这些情感在声明中如何被排序和强调，才携带了政策信号。弧线特征还塑造了专业预测者如何更新通胀预期以及他们分歧的程度，这表明存在一种与直接政策信号不同的接收方效应。这些发现表明，沟通设计——政策语言在声明中的排序和强调——是政策信号的一阶特征，而非二阶细化。
英文摘要
Central bank press conferences are not merely information releases --- they are structured narratives. We study whether the shape of sentiment within a statement, not just its average tone, carries policy-relevant signals. Constructing sentiment arcs for ECB and Fed press conferences along three dimensions --- monetary stance, economic outlook, and uncertainty --- we assess their predictive content for policy rate changes, inflation expectations, and forecaster disagreement. Our findings show that arc shape robustly predicts rate decisions beyond lexicon-based benchmarks at both institutions --- it is not merely whether a statement sounds hawkish or economically optimistic on average, but how these sentiments are sequenced and emphasized across the statement, that carries the policy signal. Arc features also shape how professional forecasters update inflation expectations and how much they disagree, pointing to a receiver-side effect distinct from the direct policy signal. These findings suggest that communication design --- the sequencing and emphasis of policy language across a statement --- is a first-order feature of the policy signal, not a second-order refinement.
发表机构
- Vienna School of International Studies (DA)（维也纳外交学院）
- Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB)（奥地利国家银行）
- Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA)（应用宏观经济分析中心）
- School of Culture and Society - Center for Humanities Computing (AU)（奥胡斯大学文化与社会学院人文计算中心）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
