发表机构
University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究评估 Plasmode 0.1.0 模拟器，发现其错位会削弱或逆转混淆效应，导致方法比较失真；对齐校正无法修复结局-暴露解耦及效应报告不一致问题。
AI 中文摘要
混淆控制方法的比较仅在模拟数据包含这些方法所针对的处理-协变量关系时才有意义。我们评估了 Plasmode 0.1.0 是否保留该关系、是否使用返回的暴露生成结局，以及是否报告其生成模型所隐含的效应。我们检查了源代码，并在相同种子下使用原始行、按观察到的暴露排序或使用对齐校正来运行生成器。我们在一个合成队列和 SUPPORT/右心导管插入术队列中，对每种策略进行了 200 次零效应重复。一个被抽样的受试者通常接收到另一个受试者的暴露概率。在合成队列中，源模型 AUC 在对齐前为 0.503，对齐后为 0.841。粗略风险差偏倚从 +0.0051 变为 +0.3037。其他排序保留或逆转了关联。对齐后，故意错误设定的估计器保留了 0.10-0.11 的风险差偏倚。正确设定的估计器几乎无偏。使用未修改的生成器时，所有五个估计器看起来都同样无偏。在注入的比值比为 2 时，条件对数比值比出现在观察到的暴露上（+0.696；目标 0.693），而不是返回的暴露上（+0.017）。错位会削弱、保留或逆转设计的混淆，从而扭曲方法比较。对齐校正不能修复结局-暴露解耦、报告效应与生成效应之间的不一致，或边际校准错误。
英文摘要
Comparisons of confounding-control methods are informative only when simulated data contain the treatment-covariate relationship those methods address. We assessed whether Plasmode 0.1.0 preserves that relationship, uses the returned exposure to generate outcomes, and reports the effect implied by its generating model. We inspected the source and ran the generator under identical seeds with source rows as supplied, sorted by observed exposure, or using an alignment correction. We ran 200 null-effect replicates per strategy in a synthetic cohort and the SUPPORT/Right Heart Catheterisation cohort. A sampled subject usually received another subject's exposure probability. In the synthetic cohort, source-model AUC was 0.503 before and 0.841 after alignment. Crude risk-difference bias moved from +0.0051 to +0.3037. Other orders preserved or reversed the association. After alignment, deliberately misspecified estimators retained risk-difference biases of 0.10-0.11. Correctly specified estimators were nearly unbiased. With the unmodified generator, all five appeared similarly unbiased. At an injected odds ratio of 2, the conditional log odds ratio appeared on the observed exposure (+0.696; target 0.693), not the returned exposure (+0.017). Misalignment can weaken, preserve, or reverse designed confounding and thereby distort method comparisons. Alignment correction does not repair outcome-exposure decoupling, disagreement between the reported and generating effects, or marginal miscalibration.
Comments10 pages, 1 figure, 2 tables. Supporting Information (17 pages) included as an ancillary file. Analysis code and archived outputs: https://github.com/ehsanx/plasmode-assess-code
