发表机构
Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本文提出一种基于NASA解体模型的概率框架，用于评估低月球轨道碎片在瞬态时间内的沉没概率，替代蒙特卡洛模拟，并揭示碎片位置与特征对结果的影响。
AI 中文摘要
本工作提出了一种新颖的概率框架，用于评估低月球轨道（LLO）区域中，在碎片生成事件后从几小时到一百天的时间范围内，轨道碎片碎片的可能结果。该框架基于NASA标准解体模型，为这些瞬态时间范围内的沉没（月球碰撞）和非沉没概率建立了连续分布，以提供对LLO区域内碎片结果可能性变化的见解，并作为计算成本高昂的蒙特卡洛模拟的替代方案。太阳辐射压力等摄动力的影响被用于评估不同时间范围内碎片结果的实现情况，提供了一个分析框架来界定每种结果的可能性。结果表明，在短时间范围内，沉没概率的变化取决于碎片生成事件的起源位置，并且在较长时间范围内，碎片的物理特征与其沉没可能性之间存在联系。最后简要讨论了该框架未来融入更广泛的轨道环境模型、任务风险评估程序和政策制定的可能性。
英文摘要
This work presents a novel probabilistic framework for the assessment of orbital debris fragment outcomes in the low lunar orbit (LLO) regime over time horizons ranging from a few hours to a hundred days after a debris generation event. The framework develops continuous distributions for the probability of sinking (lunar collision) and non-sinking over these transient time horizons, building upon NASA's Standard Breakup Model to provide insights into the variations in the likelihood of debris outcomes across the LLO regime and offering an alternative to computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations. The effects of perturbative forces such as solar radiation pressure are used to assess the realization of debris outcomes over varying time horizons, providing an analytical framework that bounds the likelihood of each outcome. Results indicate variations in the probability of sinking over short time horizons depending on the originating location of the debris generation event, as well as a link between the physical characteristics of fragments and their likelihood of sinking over longer time horizons. The future incorporation of this framework into broader-scale orbital environment models, mission risk assessment procedures, and policy development are briefly discussed.
Comments37 pages, 11 figures
