发表机构
Institute of Economics, ELTE; Institute for Computer Science and Control (SZTAKI), Hungarian Research Network (HUN-REN); Hungarian University of Sports Science; Corvinus University of Budapest (BCE)（匈牙利罗兰大学经济研究所; 匈牙利研究网络计算机科学与控制研究所; 匈牙利体育科学大学; 布达佩斯考文纽斯大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本文比较了 Elo 评分与 Transfermarkt 估值在预测欧足联俱乐部赛事比赛结果上的表现，发现两者单独使用时准确性相近，结合使用略有提升，且基于 Elo 评分的种子排位接近最优。
AI 中文摘要
在欧洲足球文献中，俱乐部季前实力通常通过两种代理指标来衡量。足球俱乐部 Elo 评分提供了自欧洲杯早期以来严格基于表现的 Elo 评分，而 Transfermarkt 估值则是基于人群的球队市场价值估计。本文通过评估这两种指标在预测 2020/21 至 2024/25 赛季欧洲冠军联赛和欧洲联赛比赛结果方面的能力，对它们进行了比较。当单独使用时，这两个指标产生了几乎相同的样本外准确性。将这两种指标结合使用会带来适度的改进，但最佳的聚合方法对预测目标敏感。我们的结果表明，基于 Elo 评分的种子排位（几乎）是最优的。
英文摘要
The pre-season strengths of European football clubs are usually measured by two proxies in the literature. Football Club Elo Ratings provide strictly performance-based Elo ratings from the early days of the European Cups, while Transfermarkt valuations are crowd-based estimates of squad market values. This paper compares them by evaluating their ability to forecast the results of matches played in the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Europa League between the seasons 2020/21 and 2024/25. The two indicators yield almost identical out-of-sample accuracy when used separately. Combining the two measures leads to a modest improvement, but the best aggregation procedure is sensitive to the forecast target. Our results suggest that seeding based on Elo ratings would be (closely) optimal.
Comments27 pages, 14 tables
