量子与类量子方法在行为试验分析中的适用位置：贯穿RCT流程的三个模拟试点
Where quantum and quantum-like methods earn their place in behavioural-trial analysis: three simulation pilots across the RCT pipeline
- Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento（特伦托大学社会学与社会研究系）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
AI总结：
本研究通过三个模拟试点，评估量子与类量子方法在行为RCT分析各阶段相对经典基线的价值，得出条件性胜利、表征性胜利和坦诚失败的结果，并提出采用决策规则与五缺口研究议程。
AI中文摘要：
行为随机对照试验（RCT）是行为科学的实证主力，然而量子计算仅通过意见动力学演示和决策理论形式主义进入该领域，RCT分析流程尚未得到检验。我逐阶段追问，在强大的经典基线对照下，量子或类量子计算在何处能赢得其适用位置，并报告了贯穿该流程的三个受控模拟试点。在一个以真实行为RCT的97结果预处理多重宇宙为锚定的功效计算试点中，在匹配查询预算且条件于高效态制备的情况下，对于两个非简并结果，量子振幅估计恢复枚举多重宇宙显著性分数的绝对误差比经典采样蒙特卡洛小20至30倍。在一个干扰试点中，一种纠缠结构估计器恢复了一个成对模型在任何样本量下都无法表示的四向溢出效应。在一个自适应试点中，一个量子启发的上下文赌博机被一个正确设定的经典基线彻底击败。这三个结果——一次条件性胜利、一次表征性胜利、一次坦诚的失败——产生了一个决策规则，用于判断何时值得采用、试点或推迟量子方法，并附有一个五缺口研究议程。
英文摘要：
Behavioural randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the empirical workhorse of behavioural science, yet quantum computing has reached the field only through opinion-dynamics demonstrations and decision-theory formalism, leaving the RCT analysis pipeline unexamined. I ask, stage by stage, where quantum or quantum-like computation earns its place against a strong classical baseline, and report three controlled simulation pilots across the pipeline. In a power-calculation pilot anchored on a 97-outcome preprocessing multiverse of real behavioural RCTs, quantum amplitude estimation recovers enumerated multiverse-significance fractions with absolute error 20-30 times smaller than classical sampled Monte Carlo at matched query budgets on the two non-degenerate outcomes, conditional on efficient state preparation. In an interference pilot, an entanglement-structured estimator recovers a four-way spillover that a pairwise model cannot represent at any sample size. In an adaptation pilot, a quantum-inspired contextual bandit is decisively beaten by a correctly specified classical baseline. The three results - one conditional win, one representational win, one honest loss - yield a decision rule for when quantum methods are worth adopting, piloting, or deferring, together with a five-gap research agenda.
