发表机构
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究利用Bluesky数据，揭示新地缘政治冲突通过参与者更替、跨主题选择性替代及对既有冲突关注用户注意力模式的干扰，重塑在线注意力分配。
AI 中文摘要
重大地缘政治危机能够迅速重塑在线公众注意力。然而，关于新危机的讨论量在人口层面的增加，几乎无法揭示用户如何适应这种对注意力的新需求。我们研究了2026年2月28日爆发的伊朗-美国-以色列冲突，利用Bluesky上跨越其爆发前后四个连续约三个月窗口的纵向转发活动数据；该数据包含9100万条独立帖子和6.455亿条转发观测记录。我们发现，新冲突通过现有冲突参与者之间的重新分配以及先前冲突活跃度较低用户的大量激活，重组了参与格局，而一些先前活跃的用户则减少了其与冲突相关的参与。注意力再分配在不同既有兴趣领域间存在显著差异：伊朗-美国-以色列和以色列-巴勒斯坦的注意力表现出强烈的正向联动，几乎没有系统性的相对替代，而其他政治和非政治内容则更持续地失去注意力份额，俄罗斯-乌克兰则表现出较弱且异质性的替代。最后，用户更广泛注意力分配的干扰，在那些对地缘政治冲突已有稳定注意力的用户中，显著比总体人群或非政治人群更为普遍。综合来看，这些发现表明，新出现的冲突通过参与者的更替、跨主题的选择性共同关注或替代，以及对已参与地缘政治冲突用户中集中出现的更广泛注意力模式的干扰，重组了在线注意力。
英文摘要
Major geopolitical crises can rapidly reshape online public attention. Yet population-level increases in discussion volume about a new crisis reveal little about how users accommodate this new demand for attention. We study the onset of the Iran-US-Israel conflict, triggered on 28 February 2026, using longitudinal repost activity from Bluesky across four consecutive approximately three-month windows spanning the period before and after its onset; the data comprise 91.0 million unique posts and 645.5 million repost observations. We find that the new conflict reorganized participation through both reallocation among existing conflict participants and substantial activation of previously low-conflict-active users, while some previously active users reduced their conflict-related participation. Attention redistribution differed substantially across pre-existing interests: Iran-US-Israel and Israel-Palestine attention showed strong positive co-movement with little systematic relative replacement, whereas Other Political and Non-Political content more consistently lost attention share, and Russia-Ukraine exhibited weaker, heterogeneous replacement. Finally, disruption of users' broader attention allocation was substantially more prevalent among users with established attention to geopolitical conflicts than in the overall or Non-Political populations. Together, these findings show that a newly emerging conflict reorganizes online attention through turnover in who participates, selective co-attendance or replacement across topics, and disruption of broader attention patterns concentrated among users already engaged with geopolitical conflicts.
Comments18 pages, 3 figures, 6 tables; includes appendices
