发表机构
Instituto interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires - Universidad de Buenos Aires; Universidad de San Andrés（布宜诺斯艾利斯政治经济学跨研究所 - 布宜诺斯艾利斯大学; 圣安德烈斯大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本文利用72个经济体面板数据，发现库存顺周期性随发展水平减弱，并揭示生产率冲击与金融冲击对库存调整的异质性影响。
AI 中文摘要
本文记录了库存动态如何随发展水平变化，以及它们如何应对实际冲击和金融冲击。利用1993-2022年间72个小型开放经济体的平衡面板数据，涵盖从发达经济体到低收入经济体，我们发现库存的顺周期性在发达经济体中很强，但在较低收入水平下变得非周期性，而波动性和持续性随着发展水平的下降而上升。使用局部投影法，我们估计了库存对长期生产率冲击和对从美国公司债券收益率与国债收益率利差识别的金融冲击的响应。生产率冲击在所有组别中产生暂时的库存积累，发达经济体的调整更平滑，而新兴和发展中经济体的周期更不规则。金融冲击在高收入组中引发库存减少随后反弹，但在低收入经济体中导致延迟且不可逆转的下降。
英文摘要
This paper documents how inventory dynamics vary across levels of development and how they respond to real and financial shocks. Using a balanced panel of 72 small open economies over 1993-2022, spanning advanced to low-income economies, we show that inventories are strongly procyclical in advanced economies but become acyclical at lower income levels, while volatility and persistence rise as development declines. Using local projections, we estimate inventory responses to a long-run productivity shock and to a financial shock identified from the spread between U.S. corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Productivity shocks generate temporary inventory accumulation across all groups, with smoother adjustment in advanced economies and more irregular cycles in emerging and developing economies. Financial shocks trigger decumulation followed by a rebound in higher-income groups, but a delayed, unreversed decline in low-income economies.
