从公共证据到合约结果：Kalshi 上的首次与稳定可判定性
From Public Evidence to Contractual Outcome: First and Stable Decidability on Kalshi
- Research Department of Devnull FZCO（Devnull FZCO 研究部）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
AI总结：
本文定义 Kalshi 预测市场的首次与稳定可判定性时钟，通过追溯性识别测试和预期基础设施测试，证明公共证据可判定性的可观测性边界，但未报告实际可判定性结果。
AI中文摘要：
公共证据在交易场所记录其首次判定之前，可能足以结算预测市场合约，但相关边界取决于适用的规则版本、确切的发布对象、来源层级、更正历史以及未完成的合约条件。本文定义了 Kalshi 的两个时钟：首次可判定性，即规则-证据映射中最早的同期单例；以及稳定可判定性，即追溯上最早的时间点，此后同一单例在最终确定之前保持不变。一项完成的追溯性识别测试确立了一个狭窄的可行性结果。在冻结的盲测中，所有 25 个身份和盲测检查均通过，且所有 25 个的当前规则文本均被恢复；未恢复任何精确或有界的历史规则版本，也未恢复任何精确或有界的官方来源发布对象。完整的历史恢复覆盖了 152,694 个普通代码、11,530 个精确事件身份和 6,540 个只读官方请求，其中历史符合条件的事件为零，历史符合条件的代码为零。这是一个可观测性结果，而非声称没有市场可判定或公共证据从未存在。一项完成的预期基础设施测试确立了在 25 个市场中三个来源程序的观测能力，对 781,266 个生命周期帧进行了完整性重新验证，有 22 个关闭的下界重连回执，无未解决的重连间隙，无到期但错过的官方发布，且价格层处于非活动状态。生产证据注册处于活动状态。预期样本仅在注册结束时从预期冻结的身份和结果前字段构建；其冻结的目标大小在注册的完整、缩减、探索性或不可行支持处置下机械选择。此处未报告合约可判定性时钟、人工裁决、价格或跨场所结果。
英文摘要：
Public evidence can become sufficient to settle a prediction-market contract before the venue records its first determination, but the relevant boundary depends on the applicable rule version, exact release object, source hierarchy, correction history, and unfinished contract conditions. This paper defines two Kalshi clocks: first decidability, the earliest contemporaneous singleton in the rule-evidence mapping, and stable decidability, the retrospective earliest time after which the same singleton remains unchanged through finalization. A completed retrospective identification test establishes a narrow feasibility result. In a frozen blind pilot, all 25 identities and blinding checks passed and current rule text was recovered for all 25; no exact or bounded historical rule version and no exact or bounded official source-release object was recovered. The full historical recovery covered 152,694 ordinary tickers, 11,530 exact event identities, and 6,540 read-only official requests, with zero historically eligible events and zero historically eligible tickers. This is an observability result, not a claim that no market was decidable or that public evidence never existed. A completed prospective infrastructure shakedown established observation capability for three source programmes across 25 markets, with integrity revalidation of 781,266 lifecycle frames, 22 closed lower-bounded reconnect receipts, no unresolved reconnect gap, no due-but-missed official release, and an inactive price layer. Production evidence enrollment is active. The prospective sample is constructed only at enrollment close from prospectively frozen identities and pre-outcome fields; its frozen target size is selected mechanically under the registered full, reduced, exploratory, or no-go support disposition. No contractual-decidability clock, human-adjudication, price, or cross-venue result is reported here.
